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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

i must be looking at the wrong GEFS...mine look more like a turd in a punch bowl...majority are an Apps runner

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If ANYTHING, I would think North Carolina folks would want the first wave to get sheared out (as long as there is a second wave). It would allow for the second wave to come in clean with cold in place and for there to be a better chance at winter weather.

Normally an actual low forming would be GOOD...but in this transient pattern there's too much risk of it being too strong and there being WAA. An overrunning event is the best chance here at something.
 
Frogge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4708#msg4708 date=1483075442]
00z gefs says

5dfa99ff43ff2f70aaefb528a2157cc3.gif


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Bi-polar and will flip with the next run
[/quote]
it's been as consistent as anything . what's it gonna flip to?

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If the first wave comes in just a bit weak and the second wave is torn up, which is most likely to happen, this is much more of an Alabama/Mississippi/Tennessee/maybe far north Georgia event and west from there.

There needs to be better blocking for us to want a low pressure and the better blocking isn't there.
 
tellicowx link said:
i must be looking at the wrong GEFS...mine look more like a turd in a punch bowl...majority are an Apps runner

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Click to expand...
your in carolina right?
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Frogge link=topic=60.msg4710#msg4710 date=1483075887]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4708#msg4708 date=1483075442]
00z gefs says

5dfa99ff43ff2f70aaefb528a2157cc3.gif


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Click to expand...

Bi-polar and will flip with the next run
[/quote]
it's been as consistent as anything . what's it gonna flip to?

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[/quote]


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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4696#msg4696 date=1483074307]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4682#msg4682 date=1483073725]
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

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Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

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[/quote]
still trying to figure out why anyone would want a true low in this setup vs a prolonged overrunning event . we saw great examples at 12z today of the issues caused by a true low . give me a 24 hour overrunning event over a gulf low all day everyday

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[/quote]
If there will be a true low, it may just be a southern slider and not a true Miller A. If it was going to be a Miller A there would be stronger WAA if that's what you're worried about. I like Gulf lows cause they can bring thunder snow and a lot more moisture. The low may not even go into the Gulf, it may just slide along the Gulf coast keeping the warm nose far enough away to were WAA will not take over.

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I'm guessing a lot of the individual members are more hits for areas west of the Apps than the eastern areas.  :eyeroll:
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

1475ed2463ae93e2f54622646ce9df2f.jpg


e55e80f25b1d611f0010b8d53ec05e73.jpg


.71 right over my house...I give that a great chance to verify

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Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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SimeonNC link said:
I'm guessing a lot of the individual members are more hits for areas west of the Apps than the eastern areas.  :eyeroll:
Click to expand...
yes lots of hits west of the apps

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tellicowx link said:
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4726#msg4726 date=1483076764]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4724#msg4724 date=1483076633]
Storm, I'm in East Tn. I was following the ptype maps with the low coming up it shows rain, but when you switch to the snowfall map it shows a large swath of snow...was kinda confusing lol

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Click to expand...
for whatever reason these ensemble snow maps count ZR and ip as snow . so the big snow totals are not actually all snow .

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[/quote]
ok, that makes sense. I thought they had fixed that.

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[/quote]
I don't know what ryan fixed. apparently the euro maps have been fixed but they still come out wrong. Maybe Shawn knows

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