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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg4680#msg4680 date=1483073633]
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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I'll take a more suppressed look at this point . of course the cmc is garbage but always fun to look at

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[/quote]
Tony would love to see that over his house...LOL!


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Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
 
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg4680#msg4680 date=1483073633]
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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That looks like it's close to Accu35's neck of the woods
[/quote] yeah it's close lol, heck I'll take snow, ice , sleet, freezing rain at this point. Love it all
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
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Actually I believe the strung out, longer overrunning scenario is better for you. A more consolidated system will wrap up and try to cut, messing you up with A lot more WAA

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Brick Tamland link said:
Hope we start seeing the energy more consolidated instead of strung out down the road. Might still be too far out for the models to get a good handle on this.
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We don't want consolidated that would be a cutter

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

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Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4675#msg4675 date=1483073285]
Well, have fun anyone outside ATL or CAE.  I retire from this threat.
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Lol...I wouldn't yet.

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[/quote]

I've been following this stuff long enough to know when it's time to close the curtain down here.
 
weatherfide link said:
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
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18z has 14/21 members with snowfall in Atlanta...that's pretty good 8-10 days out

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weatherfide link said:
This "storm" is still in ensemble territory until 144 hours out. That being said, ensembles don't support anything frozen or freezing of consequence near Atlanta and south, so it's safe to say this one is for TN, N Al., etc.
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I disagree. there have been plenty of ensemble members that show wintry weather around atlanta .it's way to early for all you georgia folks to be throwing in the Towel

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ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough. 
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4682#msg4682 date=1483073725]
I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

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Just in case some of you missed what I posted.

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[/quote]
still trying to figure out why anyone would want a true low in this setup vs a prolonged overrunning event . we saw great examples at 12z today of the issues caused by a true low . give me a 24 hour overrunning event over a gulf low all day everyday

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Shawn link said:
ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough.
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Are you including all of North GA ?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4702#msg4702 date=1483074849]
ATL & CAE are  likely out of anything significant.  This crap happens every year, we get happy down our way and watch systems just stay a tad bit more North or not quite cold enough.
Click to expand...
Are you including all of North GA ?
[/quote]

Is ATL North GA?  I consider them about the same when it comes to CAE SC... but I don't live around there or whatever.  Just notice they generally get screwed like we do over this way with overruning/;low tracks :p
 
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