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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Alright y'all, it's looking like the 0z GFS is bringing the first wave further south than the past two runs from today. Snow coming in north and central TX at 174.

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it's actually the euro wave that the gfs squashed at 12 and 18z

18z gfs
a8b9f60b3ef06db1b47badbd1a73c1ff.jpg


00z gfs
f17639c188379e63a237605457aeb989.jpg


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The angle sucks.  the angle sucks!

running it way over some way warmer air and ruining it!
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

arctic front with energy everywhere can't ask for more

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4137#msg4137 date=1482985731]
Alright y'all, it's looking like the 0z GFS is bringing the first wave further south than the past two runs from today. Snow coming in north and central TX at 174.

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Click to expand...
it's actually the euro wave that the gfs squashed at 12 and 18z

18z gfs
a8b9f60b3ef06db1b47badbd1a73c1ff.jpg


00z gfs
f17639c188379e63a237605457aeb989.jpg


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[/quote]
Oh yeah, that's right. The GFS did have the wave further north, turning out to be a cutter on some of the past runs of the GFS.

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That was a pretty good run. Very close to something big. Gfs went towards the euro. It also has a icy look to it.
 
HartselleWeather link said:
That was a pretty good run. Very close to something big. Gfs went towards the euro. It also has a icy look to it.
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Yes it does. It doesn't appear to be as cold into Georgia or the Carolinas either from what I can see.


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Precip is not the issue for most of NGA with this run...its the temps.  Surface temps and 850 temps are warm.
 
farleydawg79 link said:
Precip is not the issue for most of NGA with this run...its the temps.  Surface temps and 850 temps are warm.
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who cares at this point the setup is there for something special

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=farleydawg79 link=topic=60.msg4154#msg4154 date=1482986853]
Precip is not the issue for most of NGA with this run...its the temps.  Surface temps and 850 temps are warm.
Click to expand...
who cares at this point the setup is there for something special

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[/quote]
I totally agree...the setup is there.....just need to ride the model train to the station!
 
Storm5 link said:
9cd4db21b5e79466a35b54219ba4bc4a.jpg


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Not bad at all. It's looking like there will be a winter storm threat in the south in this time period, it's just a matter of the details being worked out.
 
I do see that 2nd wave coming up at 252...if that low hugs the coast we would get better snow from the 2nd wave. The 1st wave seems like it's going to be a CAD event more than anything. 2nd wave would have more snow cause the colder air would settle in right after the 1st wave. And the placement of the high at 264 is great. 534 thickness values coming down through NC, SC, GA, AL...528 through northern NC, western NC and through central TN.

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