Pattern January 2017 Discussion

[SimeonNC]

I know these maps are pointless but there is such a tight gradient, Northern Mecklenburg county up through Iredell gets clobbered while Southern Mecklenburg county gets very little with the CLT area seeing around 3-5 inches of "snow".

 

[HartselleWeather]

Here is the CMC look to it. Very close also to something special. Nice to see some model agreement to the general pattern.

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[SnowHusky]

Here is the CMC look to it. Very close also to something special. Nice to see some model agreement to the general pattern.

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True, that is one of the important things to look for, is model agreement.

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[GaWx]

The 0Z GEFS is pretty sweet looking for 1/6-8 and is slightly colder than the 0Z GFS then.

 

[Storm5]

the 00z gefs is SEXY

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[tellicowx]

I know these maps don't mean a lot currently, but I thought WxBell fixed the problem with the snow and ice interpretation on the total accumulation map...

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[NCSNOW]

Thanks for gefs update. Did the mean snowfall increase for Atlanta and your area Storm? How bout SER. Op had it showing its face enough to kind of throw a wrench in temp profiles, unlike euro that buried the SER

 

[tellicowx]

Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...



850 winds:

10m winds:

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[SimeonNC]

the 00z gefs is SEXY

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Maps please?

 

[SnowHusky]

Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...



850 winds:

10m winds:

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Because 850mb is about 5000ft, the winds are stronger at that height and they can blow in a different direction than the surface winds. 10m winds is about 32ft above the surface so the winds will be lighter.

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[tellicowx]

[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4170#msg4170 date=1482990339]
Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...



850 winds:

10m winds:

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Because 850mb is about 5000ft, the winds are stronger at that height and they can blow in a different direction than the surface winds. 10m winds is about 32ft above the surface so the winds will be lighter.

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[/quote]
Yeah I understand that, but what I'm trying to figure out was it places a LP center in the exact same spot as a HP center. And if you looks at the GEFS only one member supports that idea E2. Outside of the few that still suppress the system, most other members are very Euro like minus the temp issues the Op and E2 have.

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[accu35]

Gefs map please

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gefs map please

Which ones do you want

 

[tellicowx]

Outside of the Op and E2 on the GEFS, no other ensemble member placed a LP near OK during that run, which is the cause of the 850 temp issues not a SER.

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[Storm5]

the mean is amazing be so far out

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[tellicowx]

the mean is amazing be so far out

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Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.

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[Cary_Snow95]

00z Euro is off and running. Grab some popcorn

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4178#msg4178 date=1482991749]
the mean is amazing be so far out

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Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.

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[/quote]
Yeah I'm not worried about specific temp profiles this far out . the screaming message is , there is a real threat right around the corner . if we can hold this look and get to the weekend it's game on

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[tellicowx]

[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4179#msg4179 date=1482992013]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4178#msg4178 date=1482991749]
the mean is amazing be so far out

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Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.

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[/quote]
Yeah I'm not worried about specific temp profiles this far out . the screaming message is , there is a real threat right around the corner . if we can hold this look and get to the weekend it's game on

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[/quote]
I completely agree with you Storm, I was just trying to show other members who may take the OP runs verbatim everytime, to first compare it with the Ensembles to see if it makes any sense. But yeah I think that was a great run by the GEFS, showing two camps...one of suppression, which is good at this stage, and the other camp supporting the EPS with the over running idea.

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[Storm5]

00z euro is warmer vs 12z

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