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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

1300m said:
The 00z/06z EPS and 06z GEFS still show the three scenarios we've seen in various modeling over the past 24 hours: 1) mostly dry east of the apps with only a front end band west of the apps, 2) a warmer scenario with a coastal forming but cold press not enough except in the western Piedmont / Mountains east of the apps, and 3) there are still a handful of members on both ensembles that show the late blooming, explosive cyclogenesis solution that would favor the eastern Piedmont / Coastal Plain as cold gets wrapped into the system.

IMO, there's still time for it to go in any direction, but I definitely favor either 2 or 3.
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griteater said:
Nice summary. I’m solidly in the Option #2 camp for a forecast as of now. Main area of accumulating snow in foothills and mountains

Yeah to get this east, we need to press the cold boundary more early then go sharp with the wave late
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No surprise we ended up in Option #2. I figured Option 1 was a long shot. Good call @griteater, a good forecast shouldn't go unnoticed even if it's not the one we want.

Most of the local forecasts at the time of the discussion above were calling for dry in Raleigh or only a few sprinkles. Even as it rains out my window my pops for today are at 50%. Some things never change!

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 8.51.52 AM.png
 
I got down to 17.0 this morning. The grass is coated in an icy glaze. My car is iced over too. I could barely open the outer screen door. I was supposed to get down to 19 per the NWS forecast. I guess the ice accumulations helped the area to overachieve on low temps. Today's high is supposedly 34. We shall see if the freezing mark can be crossed this afternoon.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Temp is down to 24 now. It won't stop dropping and if we keep this cloud cover through the day I can't imagine what it'll be tonight after the sky clears and the wind keeps up some over the snowpack to the NW in TN. Not sure if 14 is too high or not yet.
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Blue skies back home so it should clear out. However, the temp is holding at 21.
 
weatherfide said:
Precip shut off before we dropped below freezing. So close. 31.8 now.
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When the fronts come in laid down nearly flat like that and the cold oozes over the bottom of the apps, we end up with mostly nothing when it drags thru here. It was eroding away as it came in, and I went to bed. Heard a short burst of rain in my sleep. This was never going to be a storm for us. Maybe Fri into Sat, if a low will form, and the cold press down further, lol. Maybe, maybe.. that's the story beyond the edge of the earth at I 20. But when we get a good one thru central and n central, they can be really good ones...so still we wait.
 
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