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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Cold air what I've been saying, But I was put down and told Cold Air wasn't the issue across upstate

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Just looking at the soundings from the upstate, it appears that if there is precip Monday night it should be snow. Even without precip, 850s very close if not already below freezing and if the overrunning sets, just the cooling of the column caused by overrunning would get it below freezing.
 
This GFS run looks like the pause to the south trend. slightly north so far
Yep
1705395600-KX5rvHcCSu4.png
 
Memphis doesn’t mention much in the way of the Ice/Sleet showing in the short term models. They also mention the heaviest of snow will be south of I-40 in their afternoon AFD.
 
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