Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[accu35]

What to trust more at this range, globals or short range???

Both

 

[ynot]

I think the globals are too flat with CAA overdone somewhat but at the same time hi rez is too amplified with too much WAA.. will be a blend of the 2

 

[olhausen]

I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.

 

[ynot]

I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.

Thats the way they always are around here

 

[olhausen]

Thats the way they always are around here

For sure on the surprises. I don’t know if I ever remember the short and long term models being this much at war though this close to go time. At least for my area anyways.

 

[ynot]

For sure on the surprises. I don’t know if I ever remember the short and long term models being this much at war though this close to go time. At least for my area anyways.

Ive seen it before.. same type overruning band.. ive seen hi rez come in b4 and have the band over my area but globals being stubborn on a solution they had for a couple days.. i get excited thinking hi rez has it only for them to trend towards the globals with time

 

[SimeonNC]

NAM manages to bring precip into NC Tuesday into Wednesday. It's apparently rain but it still counts.

 

[WSW]

 

[Tarheel1]

Good thing it is the nam. I got my chips in with a blend of the the euro and SREF.

NAM has done really well with placement of precip this winter. Especially long range, but short range as well. Globals had to play catch up on both my events! GFS had kicked out 23” totals for some places 2 days out, was closer to 10” verification

 

[Storm5]

I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.

To be fair the high res are at the extended range . So we will see

 

[ynot]

To be fair the high res are at the extended range . So we will see

Thats what i feel.. they have time to shift.. honestly i feel hi rez is good for details after all the ingredients come together but globals are better at how they come together

 

[Flotown]

this thing should be fully sampled tonight on 00z correct?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon has precip further south but in the form of rain for CLT/the upstate. Have a feeling we’re about to have a bad set of runs

 

[NWMSGuy]

Memphis has triggered warnings for our CWA! Let’s go!

 

[ynot]

18z globals should be telling.. do they hold or shift to the hi rez solution

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Memphis has triggered warnings for our CWA! Let’s go!

Im surprised the Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at Noon tomorrow. I wasnt aware the snow would be beginning tomorrow afternoon.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

NAM is much farther north than globals. Gives me pause to the globals honestly, since the NAM is great at overrunning setups

NAM will adjust south 12-24 hours out, just like that last threat. It was wayyy north until the last minute and it fell in line with globals.

 

[SD]

18Z HRRR SNOW



Sim radar from 25-48hrs
View attachment 011324.mp4

 

[LukeBarrette]

I’ll take my 1-2 in bburg. Interesting they are going <1 for the entire southern region. Shows how uncertain they are

 

[Twister]

Cold air is going to be an issue on the immediate Lee side of the apps. ENC with a shot if they can develop that coastal low.

Cold air what I've been saying, But I was put down and told Cold Air wasn't the issue across upstate

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