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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

RGEM. This is 10:1

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The damn thing is wonky AF sometimes but the GFS looks to have lead the way for a Winter Storm around these parts for a minute now. And for that, thank you NCEP. ?
 
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
 
Hpdb301 said:
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
Click to expand...
Apples and oranges. The wimpy LP we're dealing with this time isn't even on the same planet as the 93 triple-phaser.

The way Alabama overachieves is the shallow arctic air pushes further south and east and the overrunning precip advertised winds up being underdone as is often the case. Ice baby ice save for extreme northern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and perhaps NW Georgia.
 
Hpdb301 said:
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
Click to expand...
Well said.
 
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