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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

tractor girl said:
Peachtree NWS update:

Severe Threat:

Very impressive parameter space looks to set up over the CWA during
the early morning hours and into the afternoon on Tuesday. Strong
WAA overnight will allow for two not so great things - the first, it
will keep the boundary layer well mixed, likely preventing any
nocturnal inversion from setting up, and second, will likely help
break down our CAD/wedge in place. Normally I would say the wedge
will win out, but with a 80+ kt jet at 850mb overspreading the
region, that will aid greatly in mixing it out. That being said, the
best winds in that won`t arrive until the morning hours as the line
begins pushing through, so it may take a bit of time for the warm
sector to lift through the CWA. The current SPC outlook reflects
this nicely, showing biggest risks from Columbus to Macon and then
pushing north.

The wind threat will likely be the biggest risk right out. With the
very strong kinematics, mixing down big winds in the strongest
storms won`t take much in the way of instability. QLCS tornadoes
will likely be in play, especially given fish hook look to the
hodographs which give tremendous SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2. The
big question mark is the instability. This has potential to be a
classic HSLC event, but the ability to be fully surface based will
likely be dependent on how quickly and how strong the WAA occurs.
This creates uncertainty in the northern extent, and certainly won`t
rule out seeing some severe weather as far north as the metro if
WAA really gets moving.
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I've not been concerned for my area counting on the wedge to win out as is usual. Now, I'm not quite so sure.
 
SD said:
View attachment 140680
3k kind of creeps me out with how the line loses a little integrity and gets more cellular along and east of US1. Not sure if that's it becoming cellular or if that's it weakening. Something to watch tomorrow
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I think it could be a little both. Might have some breaks on there but there's so much SRH that any segment/break offs could spin off.
 
Here are the max dews I could find at each site from the 18z HRRR give you an idea of how far N the WF might get
DEWS.png
 
SD said:
Sorry hard to tell at this place anymore
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I was helping beat the dead horse.....any who

The 3k does almost look like the line breaks up and becomes more cellular. Not comparing at all but almost reminds me of how the line did with April 2011 outbreak. Seems I recall models showing that but I could be way off
 
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metwannabe said:
Sure nuff, dang that complicates a forecast. Residual cool stable airmass weakening line?
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Better hope so.

cad94328ae960d051d4ed761dfd35a68.jpg



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SD said:
0z hrrr is interesting in the convective side around here it just poofs away
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Meager Cape... Even isn't very high down here with all the discrete cells in the Charleston region.. highest I saw was 573 j/kg... Whereas the rest of the mesoscales are 1000 j/kg and higher.
 
metwannabe said:
Sure nuff, dang that complicates a forecast. Residual cool stable airmass weakening line?
Click to expand...
We might have to consult a big brain on this one. The run is more unstable vs 18z so maybe it's something to do with that initial blob moving out of SC? That seems too simple and unlikely to choke out the incoming line. Might be some weird gravity wave, meso low stuff going on
 
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