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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

I’m telling y’all it just seemed way to warm at the surface from these models the past couple days.. just a minor adjustment and it’s a paste bomb for NC folks ... I’ve been barking up this tree like a German Shepard would for a flying squirrel
 
Wow this is trending just like our storms usually do .. LAST MINUTE.. 2BF74A0E-DA4B-446D-AE95-976509A1DD1C.jpeg
I love the look of the first long range HRRR ... tons of convergence over NC about to happen even more if it would continue out... this is trending towards a paste bomb
 
I smell a failure here with the GFS and the GFSv16. We will find out soon.

GFS_TotalSnowKuchera_MA_2021-01-26_00Z_FHr72_PW.png

GFSv16_TotalSnowKuchera_MA_2021-01-26_00Z_FHr72_PW.png
 
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A7AE7BB1-9810-461A-94E3-85B8C4343670.jpegEE8689EE-2FD1-458F-97C4-B355B266F783.jpeg
FWIW ... I believe something like this will appear it’s just being able to pin point down where the pivot zone will be and how early we can get the column to crash
 
From RAH:
As the low center pushes off the Carolina coast and deepens, banded
precip is possible to its NW, over the NC Piedmont. As the column
cools with both deepening CAA and increasing rates, a mix then
switchover to mostly snow is expected. While surface temps initially
would seem to not support much accumulation (esp given observed
soil temps in the 40-45F range), a dusting to close to an inch appears
possible on grassy surfaces over the N Piedmont, with the higher end
of this range occurring where rates are particularly intense. Precip
should trend out overnight as the low moves further offshore, exiting
NE sections last just prior to daybreak. Expect lows from around
30 N to the mid 30s SE. Predicted snowfall amounts at this time appear
to fall just shy of an advisory, but will keep an eye on upcoming model
precip area and QPF and their vertical thermal structures to determine
the potential for banding that could increase totals. -GIH
 
6zGFS and The New GFS6z both put a strip of 3-6 Almost right at me,Ollie and Packfan. Then The euro puts down a couple Sunday with Probably a load of ice mixed in/predominant p type. This is like batting in the major leagues with the ball placed on a tee. Sad thing is will probably end up whiffing both events lol.
 
RAH HWO 5:55AM

Rain is expected to change to a rain and snow mix or mostly snow
Wednesday night, mainly along and north of Highway 64. A dusting to
half inch of snow accumulation is possible on grassy areas, with the
best chance closer to the Virginia border.
 
NAMs and HRDPS completely dry up here for this event. Euro pretty dry and other globals have a decent shot. pretty wild difference for 48 hours out.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
*intense hugging*

pretty wild to see the entire gfs family so amped while no high res really supports.
Click to expand...
Yeah they're fun to look at, but I'm still going with what RAH has stated; which is up to 1" with the possibility of more if banding develops. I still think the high end could be a 1-3" event, with the low end being flakes falling but very little accumulation.
 
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