• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

NAM is hard to beat when it comes to temperature profiles. Models are giving me from nothing to 5 inches here so I am about to find out which model to pay more attention to going forward this winter.
 
Looks like the season of the flizzard continues for this area on Wednesday afternoon and evening this week. Anything from a dusting to an inch is possible with this event. Gfs has showed as much as 2 inches of snow and the euro has been nothing but flurries to as much as a half an inch. So far this season the gfs has been better as the higher end totals have consistently verified each time albeit the biggest snow was an inch. I don’t ever recall a winter with this many events that had accumulating snow but never more then an inch. I’m still waiting for that snow that is predicted to be a half inch but we end up with 3 plus inches or more. I’ve never had a surprise system like that since living here in 2006 so it’s bound to happen sometime.
 
Rah thoughts

A cold and dry air mass is
located across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Central Canada on
Wednesday, not in a favorable location to support a significant
winter storm. But with the upper heights collapsing into the
540s dm range by Thursday morning and sufficient cold advection
to drop low level thickness values in the 1280s by 12Z Thursday,
some wintry precipitation is possible across the northern tier
of NC late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the
precipitation ends. EC ensemble members from the 00Z run have
bounced back toward the potential for more wintry precip,
especially near the VA border and across the northern Coastal
Plain near KIXA. Still lots uncertainty with the track, and
especially the cold air so will hold off including much in the
way of accumulation. But a couple of hours of wet snow very
late Wednesday night to around daybreak Thursday is possible.
Coordinated with WPC and have introduced a coating of snow
accumulation near the VA border and across the northern Coastal
Plain. Lows will range in the lower to mid 30s.
 
metwannabe said:
Well the V16 has been consistent, it may be consistently wrong but at least it's consistent....

View attachment 67858
Click to expand...
That it has. Let’s go down with the ship with this one. Can I at least get an accumulating snowfall? Or, hell, even just see pure snow falling without being mixed with rain??
 
Cold air is in place later in the period in a similar deal, and prints out as zr, ip and sn. I like some action right after the heat, and it's 68 here, but with this one the cold stays west. Past truncation the cold is here, but then that's Sparky's on the whacky stuff again land, lol. Keep draping boundaries across Ga though, and sooner or later one will hit, if there is any winter to work with. I was under the truck today, in a t shirt, in Jan. and had to slap a mosquito. That can work for us with the heat equals moisture....if the cold ever shows. A stalled boundary, an impulse out of the gulf...that works over and over, but it's got to be a good bit less than now 67.4, lol. It's like teaching cats to deliver the mail. And it's getting worse. It's been 14 years since or so since I was able to sled on concrete. I realize the heating atmosphere can give me mega storms, but I hate to have to live thru 15 hot winters to get slammed with the hell blizzard. I like my goodies spread out some, lol. And, although the recent winter where it stopped mid Jan, then gave us an amazingly cool March was great to live thru for historical purposes...only March was fun, and not in a frozen stuff way.
 
GFS para is not backing down, and the Euro is at least showing snow for the northern half of NC. It looks good for seeing snow here, just a matter of if it will accumulate any.
 
Lol this orientation of the energy isn’t far off from the one we saw in early January (for a deform), difference is, the NAM isn’t excited 6A766F3A-8188-4203-8A19-8C7C1FBE5C17.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS para is not backing down, and the Euro is at least showing snow for the northern half of NC. It looks good for seeing snow here, just a matter of if it will accumulate any.
Click to expand...
The new GFS is snow happy. At least when it goes operational we'll get fantasy storms again.
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m definitely concerned about how long it will take for any potential changeover to occur. They always seem to occur later than expected. The storm earlier this month does not inspire much confidence, to say the least.
Click to expand...
I feel like this will have a better shot and could do a little better for more areas. That ain't saying much, though.
 
Goes along with what I've been thinking. However it would be interesting if areas further west see a quick burst of snow
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20210125-213346.png
    Screenshot_20210125-213346.png
    726.5 KB · Views: 31
Myfrotho704_ said:
I approve of this, even areas farther west would see snowflakes mix in View attachment 67913
Click to expand...
Look how far off shore that low is deepening. Just 50 -100 miles futher west,rates will do the trick like they are in ne nc. Looks 1000mb way east of hatteras. Only shot is bombogensis close to coast line. Closer to Wilmington, the better.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top