Sheesh 
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Epic -NAO GFS run with 3 winter storms in Texas
the block that keeps on blocking. This pattern wants to just sit and rot without reloading. These looks are wild
John1122
Member
That would break all time seasonal snowfall records in that area.
BufordWX
Member
That run was pretty insane. Last 10 days of the run some places as far south as TN and some areas in northern GA/AL dont even go above freezing at all.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The end game could certainly be interesting here even as we get out to roughly MLK Day or so
But to be fair...I remember the first week Feb 2014 it was winter over, nina got a hold of us....and we know what happened the 2nd week of Feb.
But we are on heater when it comes to Feb's...just brutal. I bet you can't find an 8 winter stretch, soon to be 9, this bad for the east.
After the heavy rain on Sunday/Monday the cold definitely comes...will be nice. Feb with highs in the 70's will be here soon enough.. going to enjoy these temps for as long as we can get them.
Good thing we don’t like the
I'm trying not to bite my tongue. But looking at the weeklies it could very well be right.
Snow_chaser
Member
Wasn’t it about 2 yrs ago models was showing that vodka record breaking cold and yea it got cold, but nothing like what was projected. Ended up cold but nothing like what was modeled. This looks like the same, they record breaking cold has vanished.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
To be fair, we knew that wasn't going to happen without snow-cover. Once we lost the snow, the temps moderated.
In fairness record cold has been off the table for a few days now. That doesn’t mean it won’t still be impressive because many locations might be looking at two weeks straight of temperatures 8-12 degrees below average
MichaelJ
Member
Cold without snow is like an ice cream cone without ice cream
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just in case though, I can see the west dipping more making it harder for storms to establish, the trough not being deep enough, and somehow not enough cold being present in addition to a slight press on the SER. After seeing how bad we're going with this current pattern approaching I'm not sure I can say "We can't screw this up" anymore because yes we can, but hopefully we don't.
Have a gut feeling we are moving a 1960's winter wonderland type pattern for last 2 weeks of Jan into Feb....this is about as good as it gets...assuming the day 14-16 GEFS is correct.
It would be stunning to me if a large portion of the SE doesn't get a solid snow before Jan ends.
Avalanche
Member
Made me laugh so hard I about choked on my coffee
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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How can there be a great block and a W coast trough as well! That won’t workHoly block from heaven
Nice nw flow event ongoing in wnc. Asheville getting it good
All I can say is that if we get through the entire month of January without a Winter Storm with the pattern the CPC is thinking will be in place, it will be a diabolical failure.
The latest outlook for the SECOND half of January below. You would think SOMETHING would emerge over the coming days & weeks if next week doesn’t work out.
The latest outlook for the SECOND half of January below. You would think SOMETHING would emerge over the coming days & weeks if next week doesn’t work out.
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EPS says next Thursday is the coldest day in two years here
SnowNiner
Member
Hopefully we can get back to some sort of Miller B cad situation with a high to the NE. That’s our money maker the last 20 years. I’m abandoning ship on Miller As.
LittleMountain
Member
First time I’ve had snow on the ground since 2022.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Exactly the same way I feel, except reverse everything you said
Here's the referenced Jan 16-19 storm on the 12z GFS Graphcast. Post em while you got em I guess. Kinda cool how it produces a storm without some crazy weather pattern. It just has a west to east running wave train off the Pacific, and there is a ridge spike that sends the storm SE right behind the previous storm which has pressed the baroclinic zone south behind it. Simple and easy
All signs point to the trough moving to the west in the last 7-10 days of Jan via -EAsiaMtnTorq / pull back on the Pac Jet. But before that, Jan 14-18 on the EPS and Jan 14-20 on tonight's GEFS Ext gives us the potential last hurrah pattern with Greenland blocking building back in from the east and ridge spiking up into AK a bit, with the storm track pressed south
2nd week of January had looked like a good spot...but our pattern evolved like this. We lost the -EPO and -AO is toast and we had our PNA ridge which was perfect pull back well west.
rburrel2
Member
When warm?
Last week of Jan and then an absolute blowtorch in Feb coupled with the blowtorch MJo phases … fairly easy to see coming.
I heard phases 2 and 3 are great for snow.
It is...why we are getting snow before the month is out. Maybe next week and then one last hurrah from the 17-24 period.
Phase 9 is when we will break through.
Around 20F and clear with ~1” on the border this morning.
MichaelJ
Member
Today's teleconnections show a mixed bag. PNA goes positive until the 20-21st, the NAO stays negative (although not as pronounced), the EPO turns Negative around the 20th and the WPO stays negative to neutral throughout the rest of January. Bottom line is if these projections verify, we will turn mild until the last week of January where we may have a very small window to get a snow event. Don't want to talk about February and March
