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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

We should kiss the 50-51 degree mark today for an hour or two here. It will also be the last time we see it for the next 15 days atleast. Likely mby ends up BN for Dec and Jan. Thats a huge win in an of itself. Need a SECHS Jan8-10, to get season of above normal snowfall for a change.
 
Both GFSs keep the cold train chugging along through the end of their respective runs. The Euro moves the trough into the SW by 360.

The CFS moves the blocking over NC by Feb. What a turd.

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Keep it weak along the gulf. We’ll let the eastern parts of SC NC VA deal with the WAA. Good look here though. Everyone in the game right now.

And you can go ahead and ignore that cutoff wave over Baja. Ain’t happening IMG_0795.png
 
KyloG said:
Fairly remarkable how the GEFS has completely collapsed the pacific pattern the past 36 hours...inside day 10 too.

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Honestly that looks like the Feb 2010 pattern correct? And I like it better. The strong -EPO would likely lead to suppression. There is still enough west coast ridging and a -NAO present to get the job done. And I strictly remember some saying, Webber included that it's hard if not impossible to sustain a -NAO and -EPO. One becomes dominant and destroys the other. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I'd rather have the -NAO as long as it doesn't become a block for Pac air.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Honestly that looks like the Feb 2010 pattern correct? And I like it better. The strong -EPO would likely lead to suppression. There is still enough west coast ridging and a -NAO present to get the job done. And I strictly remember some saying, Webber included that it's hard if not impossible to sustain a -NAO and -EPO. One becomes dominant and destroys the other. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I'd rather have the -NAO as long as it doesn't become a block for Pac air.
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Definitely not, not even close. It could just be a pacific reshuffle and then reload.

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KyloG said:
Fantasy land but that ain’t warm…wouldn’t mind a big AK ridge that could build poleward.

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EPS softens the western ridge and renews the -NAO a bit at the end. Pac Jet is still reaching out to Hawaii. MJO not moving fast

Every day of the run has below normal temperatures at 850 except one or two around Jan 6. And how many years have we groaned about having a West Atlantic Ridge? No sign of it here. Not bad

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atlweatherman said:
Off topic question, but does anyone know what happened to Meteorologist Chris Simmons? He was a regular poster here, especially during winter..

Really miss his analysis
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@deltadog03 is still around. I don’t believe he’s in the weather business anymore but he definitely drops by from time to time.
 
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wow said:
See that's what wave 2 should look like!

EDIT: That IS wave 2! Well, the part that backed out to the baja. It finally kicked east a couple of days later.
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Ok, now I'm confused. Are we counting Monday 1/6 as a wave? (Wave#1) and then 1/11 as wave#2 and this (1/15) is wave#3?? <or> Are you trying to merge #2 and #3 here?
 
Just gandering around tonight at some MSLP maps. Maybe a shot at a nuke of a Nor’easter as the pattern makes an attempt to retreat around the 14th/15th and our -NAO gets jammed south with one last big height crash along the eastern seaboard. Crescendo storm on watch
 
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