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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

We were never really able to bring the EPS inside day 10 for a real threat...the red line marks roughly day 10 for each run.

And the snow mean has been decreasing the past couple of days for days 10-15.

ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-total_snow_multirun-5776000.png
 
KyloG said:
Yeah it's the op GFS day 10+ and everyone dismisses it when it trends the wrong direction but...we don't dismiss this. Super -NAO trend which is nice in week 2. Keep it going...

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i think patterns, both good and bad, have more sticking power then the models think. i think it's the source of some of the can kicking we're accustomed to. once the -nao is here i think it will be tough to stamp out and our big board hit may still be outside of our periphery, like the 17th or something.
 
LittleMountain said:
So…. What happened to the historic, pipe-bursting cold? Again, the Carolinas do wet/warm and dry/cold better than anyone.View attachment 158600
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It wil be very cold first half of January. Extremes that were being tossed around were never really viable without a deep snow event(s).

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-6812800.png
 
I stole these MJO/snow stats from Webber and Alan I think...but the interesting thing is how bad phase1 in January is for snow. But phase2-3 is fairly good. It's too bad that ph8 is being mostly skipped because that's a good phase.

And I wonder if the collapse of the MJO the past few days is reason why our pacific pattern went the wrong way in the near term.

ECMF_BC.pngScreen Shot 2025-01-02 at 10.32.40 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
I stole these MJO/snow stats from Webber and Alan I think...but the interesting thing is how bad phase1 in January is for snow. But phase2-3 is fairly good. It's too bad that ph8 is being mostly skipped because that's a good phase.

And I wonder if the collapse of the MJO the past few days is reason why our pacific pattern went the wrong way in the near term.

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My question is can we really consider this to be a La Niña right now. The last I read the ENSO is still neutral as the La Niña has been delayed.
 
SD said:
As much as I want to be mad about the next 10 days (I have some serious concerns at this point) if we are here around mid monthView attachment 158709

I can only be so mad and disappointed
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Probably the last hurrah before the fun shifts to the west. I'm curious how much pattern damage this piece at the first of the loop causes with low pressure running into AK. But hopefully, some can cash in on the "hurrah" period (2nd - 3rd week of Jan)

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NCHighCountryWX said:
Bastardi posted an update this evening explaining why the severe cold is now off the table. Also he said winter is wrapped up in the Eastern US around January 20.
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Maybe on jan 20th, he will be updating saying "delayed but not denied" and mid Feb will be end all. I love JB, hes good. We got a solid Jan by our standards. We need to cash in, in the day 7-13 period. Then hook a late Feb/ early March rabbit out of that hat ULL to cap it off.
 
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