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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

weatherfide said:
Currently 48.2 and falling. Wind is gusty out of the west. I wonder how strong the cold air advection will be?
Click to expand...
The real cold air is currently held up behind lost and sand mountains to our northwest. Temps have already started going back up, back up to 41.5. We were supposed to be in the 30s by now as of yesterday.
 
I think we're cooking pretty good with this renewed pattern moving in (post Jan 20). The retrograding block is a big key as yall have mentioned. For one, it would obviously help with cold air delivery. But the other thing I'm watching is what it does over Europe to East Asia. If that block doesn't retrograde in from Scandi-UK and it slides east, that would throw low pressure into E Asia and you setup -EAsiaMtnTorq, Pac jet retraction, and -PNA. On the other hand, if it retros into Greenland (which looks like the going trend more than the other option), low pressure drops into C Eurasia and you don't get the -EAMT. In fact, the models maintain the Pac Jet extension to Hawaii or thereabouts pretty well. The other funny part about that is that it keeps the StratPV quite strong, whereas moving the ridging east from the UK to Scandi-Urals region would potentially induce strat weakening. But instead, we may continue to see a big disconnect between the strat and troposphere. That's pretty rare to have a big disconnect for a long time, but the 79-80 winter is an example of when that also happened.

In my experience, the model runs with this type of stuff won't look great every run. You'll get some that are great, some good, and some just meh.

With regard to the GEFS / EPS difference, I just think the EPS is superior there....especially so with what we've seen this year. The GEFS was too far west with the trough in our current pattern change.

Here is the model run diff at the end of today's EPS:

J1u1y86.png



Here are the maps / charts from the 79-80 winter showing the stratosphere / troposphere disconnect late Dec to late Feb
5DUYTs0.jpeg


TJARoXW.jpeg
 
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griteater said:
I think we're cooking pretty good with this renewed pattern moving in (post Jan 20). The retrograding block is a big key as yall have mentioned. For one, it would obviously help with cold air delivery. But the other thing I'm watching is what it does over Europe to East Asia. If that block doesn't retrograde in from Scandi-UK and it slides east, that would throw low pressure into E Asia and you setup -EAsiaMtnTorq, Pac jet retraction, and -PNA. On the other hand, if it retros into Greenland (which looks like the going trend more than the other option), low pressure drops into C Eurasia and you don't get the -EAMT. In fact, the models maintain the Pac Jet extension to Hawaii or thereabouts pretty well. The other funny part about that is that it keeps the StratPV quite strong, whereas moving the ridging east from the UK to Scandi-Urals region would potentially induce strat weakening. But instead, we may continue to see a big disconnect between the strat and troposphere. That's pretty rare to have a big disconnect for a long time, but the 79-80 winter is an example of when that also happened.

In my experience, the model runs with this type of stuff won't look great every run. You'll get some that are great, some good, and some just meh.

With regard to the GEFS / EPS difference, I just think the EPS is superior there....especially so with what we've seen this year. The GEFS was too far west with the trough in our current pattern change.

Here is the model run diff at the end of today's EPS:

J1u1y86.png



Here are the maps / charts from the 79-80 winter showing the stratosphere / troposphere disconnect late Dec to late Feb
5DUYTs0.jpeg


TJARoXW.jpeg
Click to expand...
We have to get alot of factors to come together for cold and or wintry weather. That's just how it is in the south. If I want to be a total optimistic person, I hope it continues through mid march lol.
 
Tonight’s ensembles looked more meh toward the end of the runs with trough too far NW, but the “fundamentals” are still there - trough / low pressure in central Eurasia and not east Asia, Pac Jet extending out to Hawaii, -EPO, Scandi - UK ridging (but less -NAO signal). Hopefully just some meh runs like I mentioned can happen that improve in the next cycles
 
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