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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

This multi-week pacific jet retreat will likely take a little longer to get in gear with another positive mtn torque forecast near MLK Day. Some retraction from where we’ve been earlier this winter but not full boar classic Nina yet means -EPO/+TNH style pattern is on the way. Makes sense what I’m seeing on the models

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SD said:
Overall I was a huge fan of the 12z EPS. I think we have a couple of more opportunities before we lose the pattern totally and the best one might be right around mlk day
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Got my eye on that one. Also looks like another shot at some extreme cold. Weeklies were below normal for almost the entire run.
 
30/10 right now after we had a high of 39 and low of 23 today. Remarkable that we could get to ~20 tonight with these winds
 
I am already seeing signs of another i10-i20 chance, and this one's actually suppressed for the NW trend to maybe not screw those areas. Also, signs of another cutoff going to ruin Cali's fire putting out chances in the coming days.
 
The thaw is coming per JB,

It will be very hard to fight an MJO that goes from this

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_01_36_AM.png


Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_03_20_AM.png




to this week 3/4

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_01_26_AM.png


Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_03_31_AM.png






phase 4 is likely week 3 phase 5 week 4

And the JMA just marches winter into the west where its liable to stay for a good part of Feb

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_6_05_26_AM(1).png


by week 3 and 4 its opposite now so while there is cold overlap into week 4 and the negative WPO will fight, chances are that will reverse also

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_6_05_53_AM(1).png


ughh
 
SD said:
I'm still pretty convinced our coldest air is yet to come
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Climatologically speaking the coldest period of the year is around the middle of January. I believe that we will see a couple of days colder than what we have seen so far during the next couple of weeks. Around the 20th we will probably be tracking another winter storm hopefully.
 
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weather bubba said:
Climatologically speaking the coldest period of the year is around the last week of January. I believe that we will see a couple of days colder than what we have seen so far during the next couple of weeks. Around the 20th we will probably be tracking another winter storm hopefully.
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Not in Atlanta. Atlantas avg high is 1 degree higher on January 25 than it is now. Maybe NC is different.
 
SD said:
Average temp so far for Jan imby 34.2. 5 day avg soil temp 35. Frosty folks
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How is your soil temp measured? I have a soil temperature sensor that measure 1' underground. It shows about 41 now. Since I've had it, I think its only been below freezing last year during our historic sleet storm and cold snap.
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
The thaw is coming per JB,

It will be very hard to fight an MJO that goes from this

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_01_36_AM.png


Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_03_20_AM.png




to this week 3/4

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_01_26_AM.png


Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_7_03_31_AM.png






phase 4 is likely week 3 phase 5 week 4

And the JMA just marches winter into the west where its liable to stay for a good part of Feb

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_6_05_26_AM(1).png


by week 3 and 4 its opposite now so while there is cold overlap into week 4 and the negative WPO will fight, chances are that will reverse also

Screenshot_2025_01_09_at_6_05_53_AM(1).png


ughh
Click to expand...
JB went warm for this winter and has been behind all winter and keeps trying to rush pattern change to flip warm.
 
KyloG said:
JB went warm for this winter and has been behind all winter and keeps trying to rush pattern change to flip warm.
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I like JB for storm recognition, but his pattern recognition is often driven by the seasonal forecast he has in place. Last winter, he forecasted cold & snowy for the SE and busted bad. This winter he forecasted warm & dry. That forecast is in the process of busting bad. He needs a warm- up soon for the rest of the winter or he has busted bad again. If I remember correctly, a few days ago, he was saying we would be flipped to warm by 1/20. That call is not looking good currently.
 
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