• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

View attachment 156877
Click to expand...
No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

View attachment 156877
Click to expand...
I was thinking KDH or Duck would be the place to be myself.
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
Click to expand...
Those are 850 mb temps and -10C is quite cold for us at that level (see the anomalies below). And then you have to remember that is the 200 hr ensemble mean - that is an average of 51 ensemble members at 200 hours out.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_anom_stream-5992000.png
Look at the spread in surface min temps for that time frame and just beyond below - you can see a big spread so to have -10C already showing is quite impressive at H85 and an indicator that the incoming early January air mass could be truly frigid. Doesn't mean it will be, but it's a signal of the potential.
ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-tmin_tmax_boxplot-5257600.png
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
As others have mentioned, this is brutally cold by our standards.

Seeing -10C 850mb temps ~1km off the surface means we would have some absolute instability to work with over some of our area lakes.

We could conceivably even get some really isolated light lake effect snow bands off some of the larger lakes around here if other things lined up just right. Vividly remember this happening in Jan 2014

View attachment 156877
Click to expand...
Lake Hartwell in SC produced a lake effect snow even in Jan of ‘96 I believe! Was the first and last time I’ve heard of it there. Low temps were in the 0-10 above range during that cold snap!!
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
No offense, but it does not look that bad. Twenty degrees at 7 a.m.- we've already had that.
Click to expand...
Euro suite never drives in a huge high and for the most part they are breezy through the whole duration of the cold, that would likely keep us from realizing what would otherwise be a floor in the single digits to low 10s
 
Chazwin said:
Pretty sure you had single digits in January 2018. I think pretty much the whole state did away from the immediate coast
Click to expand...
EWebb has it covered with a low temp map. Thinking we had single digits in 2014 & 2015 as well

But looking ahead, me thinks there will be plenty of twists and turns over the next few weeks. Maybe for the better / maybe not

B1184631-0A92-473A-B960-A881A571B0EB.png
 
griteater said:
EWebb has it covered with a low temp map. Thinking we had single digits in 2014 & 2015 as well

But looking ahead, me thinks there will be plenty of twists and turns over the next few weeks. Maybe for the better / maybe not

View attachment 156885
Click to expand...
Wow! That is similar to jan 1985… a once in a lifetime event and everyone seems to have forgotten !
 
LickWx said:
Wow! That is similar to jan 1985… a once in a lifetime event and everyone seems to have forgotten !
Click to expand...
It should be noted that it was aided east of US-1 by a pretty decent snowpack that was put down by that coastal storm. You can see the areas that had the heaviest totals were in the northeast part of the state where lows dropped to 5-8 degrees below zero
 
Chazwin said:
It should be noted that it was aided east of US-1 by a pretty decent snowpack that was put down by that coastal storm. You can see the areas that had the heaviest totals were in the northeast part of the state where lows dropped to 5-8 degrees below zero
Click to expand...
I remember the cold snap in 2018 being called a 1 in 250 year event by some meteorologists. The morning of the 7th was the coldest, but Raleigh stayed below freezing for a solid week straight and Charlotte was below 35. Ponds were frozen over with ice several inches thick. For areas west of US-1, it wasn't until a second cold snap later in the month that we finally received measurable snowfall, although the coastal "bomb cyclone" on January 3rd trended west in the 11th hour and surprised some areas like Pinehurst.
 
LickWx said:
Uhh sir Raleigh had it’s longest stretch below freezing ever

Shane can find it but it was like the coldest or second coldest week ever
Click to expand...
Was that the year we had 9+ inches on the ground and single digits for over A week, best I recall?
 
384

I’m gonna stay positive and happy and believe this will verify.
 
Some of the best ensemble snow means for our area on both the EPS and GEFS but I sure would like to see them get under 200 hours. We have been seeing them basically just go away or continue to get kicked back and its the same old song and dance.

I do feel better with the cold, but just hope we can score something.
 
b07a5dc816782b0d3d1469137ae798d3.jpg

GFS suddenly has a -NAO. You love to see it. Most interested I’ve been in many years! Hoping we can bring a big dog home for RDU/eastern areas for once. I live near hickory feeling pretty good in the western part of the state for first few weeks of January!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top