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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

KyloG said:
Will be interesting to see who wins...I think we all know how this ends though.

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Meh the GEFS has tried to drop upper troughs down here in the sw us in the long range to no avail. It was all over some sort of cut off in the long range at the beginning of January then caved to other guidance

The GEFS is already caving in the pacific jet retraction earlier in the run & I doubt that pattern lasts long at all even if it shows up. It’s not really supported by the background state or the teleconnection pattern
 
Webberweather53 said:
Meh the GEFS has tried to drop upper troughs down here in the sw us in the long range to no avail. It was all over some sort of cut off in the long range at the beginning of January then caved to other guidance

The GEFS is already caving in the pacific jet retraction earlier in the run & I doubt that pattern lasts long at all even if it shows up. It’s not really supported by the background state or the teleconnection pattern
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The wavelengths collapse on the GEFS and GEPS, allowing a cut off to sneak into the SW US. Could happen but it won’t stay that way for very long here regardless. Maybe it warms up briefly for a few days but there’s a risk of CAD/ice in that pattern. It would be one thing if it was March or if we had a retracted pacific jet, but with an Aleutian low, -EPO, +TNH, -NAO, and it being January, we’re likely to return back to the -EPO/+TNH look pretty quickly and stay there til probably late January
 
Webberweather53 said:
The wavelengths collapse on the GEFS and GEPS, allowing a cut off to sneak into the SW US. Could happen but it won’t stay that way for very long here regardless. Maybe it warms up briefly for a few days but there’s a risk of CAD/ice in that pattern. It would be one thing if it was March or if we had a retracted pacific jet, but with an Aleutian low, -EPO, +TNH, -NAO, and it being January, we’re likely to return back to the -EPO/+TNH look pretty quickly and stay there til probably late January
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Let’s hope it’s wrong as we know Feb comes fast and we know how Feb’s work around here. Tick tock
 
Webberweather53 said:
It wouldn’t surprise me if it was right here but my other point is it doesn’t matter that much. We will return back to the -EPO/+TNH pattern pretty quickly
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Eric - are you going with your ideas expressed previously about this winter that once the MJO makes it back to the Indian Ocean, we won’t have too much Pac Jet momentum loss because of this year’s SST pattern, with convection there helping to support the -EPO/+TNH pattern?

I like a blend of the Euro and CFS for the MJO going into early / mid Jan

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griteater said:
Eric - are you going with your ideas expressed previously about this winter that once the MJO makes it back to the Indian Ocean, we won’t have too much Pac Jet momentum loss because of this year’s SST pattern, with convection there helping to support the -EPO/+TNH pattern?

I like a blend of the Euro and CFS for the MJO going into early / mid Jan

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Yep that’s likely what’s going to happen and it’s in line with Nina climatology. I think we transition back to a -PNA pattern as we get past MLK Day. There’s usually a lagged response between the jet retraction and an Indian Ocean mjo orbit
 
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Looks moist for early January


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