rburrel2
Member
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Nothing we don't know, except RAH at least thinks the various options are all possible.
"Sunday into Monday becomes a little unclear on the timing of the
next weather disturbance. The Euro has a surface low over the TN
valley Sunday afternoon then NE over the OH valley before moving
offshore the DELMARVA coast Monday afternoon. If this solution
occurs, or anything close to this track, central NC will stay in the
warm sector of the low resulting in no p-type issues and only
receiving rain between Sunday afternoon through early afternoon
Monday. The other scenario could be similar to the GFS, where a weak
surface low treks along the Gulf Coast during the day Monday, and
then offshore by Tuesday morning. With this track, the cold air will
stay in place as the arctic high could still be influencing much of
the US, resulting in some rain snow mix or just snow, Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Thus low confidence on timing
and p-type for this period of the forecast. As time gets closer with
more Hi-res model solutions, more consistency with each model run
will increase confidence one way or another.
For now, have rain beginning in the far NW Piedmont late Sunday
night, with chance PoPs expanding across the region Sunday evening
and overnight hours, with chance rain/snow mix in areas across the
northern Piedmont. By Monday morning have rain/snow mix in areas
along and north of US64 and West of I85 returning to almost all of
the area with rain/showers Monday afternoon/ early evening."
"Sunday into Monday becomes a little unclear on the timing of the
next weather disturbance. The Euro has a surface low over the TN
valley Sunday afternoon then NE over the OH valley before moving
offshore the DELMARVA coast Monday afternoon. If this solution
occurs, or anything close to this track, central NC will stay in the
warm sector of the low resulting in no p-type issues and only
receiving rain between Sunday afternoon through early afternoon
Monday. The other scenario could be similar to the GFS, where a weak
surface low treks along the Gulf Coast during the day Monday, and
then offshore by Tuesday morning. With this track, the cold air will
stay in place as the arctic high could still be influencing much of
the US, resulting in some rain snow mix or just snow, Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Thus low confidence on timing
and p-type for this period of the forecast. As time gets closer with
more Hi-res model solutions, more consistency with each model run
will increase confidence one way or another.
For now, have rain beginning in the far NW Piedmont late Sunday
night, with chance PoPs expanding across the region Sunday evening
and overnight hours, with chance rain/snow mix in areas across the
northern Piedmont. By Monday morning have rain/snow mix in areas
along and north of US64 and West of I85 returning to almost all of
the area with rain/showers Monday afternoon/ early evening."
NEGaweather
Member
Yea I’ll take this all day.
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I was hoping someone was gonna post it. I’m away today. Heading to Orlando to watch the Gamecocks! Let’s keep the good trends going today!
Big increase. Some absolute bombs in there. While I shouldn’t be, I’m worried about this overamping than being suppressed.
Going to be a tough stretch of model watching because there will definitely be some whiffs with this type of setup. Still sitting at a one inch mean with every player needed for a big dog for our area. Hopefully we get some positive runs today and growing ensemble support.
When was the last time that more than half of FL had a snow mean…
Yea I’ll take this all day.
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Last edited:
Something I've wondered too. We've grown accustomed to a warmer climate. To compare this to arctic outbreaks, from the past, has to be a rarity (if it comes to fruition) and even more anomalous? 70s/80s vs 2024 comparisons.
let's do this! Spurs up
Bigedd09
Member
This looks similar to what EPS was showing the other day. Would love to get the EPS trending back in the right direction. I'm a new member by the way. Let's all reel one in next week!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Blocking galore, let’s go!
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Just wait until it all lines up perfectly and you get a model run with a band over 12-16” of snow from LA into NC.
tennessee storm
Member
This has big dog potential written all over this setup.
Twister
Member
When y'all referring to the first system is that the one this weekend or are you talking early next week's system? That early week system looks like it produce frozen for many across this board? I was thinking the first system was early week but I forgot about the one coming in this weekend May be one y'all calling #1
NEGaweather
Member
Here is the eps which was an increase vs the 12z yesterday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The big 3 ensemble suites are nibbling.
The timing differences and details are still very much tbd but I like this period a lot just for the potential it has to produce something big for most everyone on the board.
Crazy to see means like this along the I-20 corridor.
The timing differences and details are still very much tbd but I like this period a lot just for the potential it has to produce something big for most everyone on the board.
Crazy to see means like this along the I-20 corridor.
Some of us may actually see our first flakes Friday afternoon, models increasing moisture with potent s/w swinging through. Light showers/ip/sn showers seem very possible across Cen/N NC
When will we create a thread for the Monday event? I would say late this afternoon if we keep/gain model support and maybe NWS interest. It's starting to get cluttered with all the potential storms (which I'm not complaining.
Twister
Member
Thanks that's what I was thinking
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GEFS MJO forecast through 1/14 moves in the null (COD but colder side) and then pretty much meanders through phase 1
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m starting to think this event Monday turns into a pretty solid CAD icing event.
RNK has introduced snow in my forecast.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Cold with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent.
MONDAY
A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
$$
SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Cold with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent.
MONDAY
A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
$$
Yeah I'd think later today or tonight we probably will do so
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Usually need to build the glacier first & force it southward
Latest ai coming in with a 1-40 north event
Ai also didn't really lose the -nao this run like it had
Bigedd09
Member
Looked like a slight improvement for late next week as well
A nice Virginia winter storm.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I just can’t get over this upcoming pattern, will probably multiple shots of cold air not to mention the atmospheric blocking being present. Our window of opportunity is much bigger than it normally is.
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Just noticed the 6z Euro AI definitely made a step in the right direction for the possible board wide threat
Pops
Member
Wow ..just seen the euro for late next week.long way out I know but dang!!!
Pops
Member
Pics??
Usually I'm pessimistic, but I would think the CAD (even in-situ) will show stronger as we get closer. Might only help our friends out in western NC, but we'll see.
