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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This is a monster storm. Great white buffalo of an opportunity here. You can’t fumble this one.
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In our world, if theres a way, we will find it lol. The thought i have a shot to do a 10-12 day barnburner stretch again, like 2000 is whats keeping me glued right now. Just the window presenting itself is something i thought id never see again. And its just a window at this point. Blinds can shut in an instant as we all know.
 
10 days out.. a lot of watching and waiting.. but if we can get it in the 4 day window we can follow the old EE rule.. if the ETA(old name of the NAM) and the ECMWF agree, you can take it to the bank!! Will be interesting to see how those compare now that there have been so many updates and we have the AI version now.. some of you remember the EE rule.. I’ve been around a while..
 
ILMRoss said:
if that energy doesn't pinch in to baja and marches to the gulf and the timing on that tpv is better then the ceiling may actually be something march 1993ish. that might be the comp. it's that loaded
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Yes sir. You can see that right here.

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JLL1973 said:
Going to be hard to get a northward trend with that cold press. That’s some cold air
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I expect the cold to modify (still cold) some as we get closer in the time frame. I can see this gulf low moving north as we get closer. I seen and heard this song all before. Dang, I can't remember the storm when they system was heading to Tampa and then closer to the event time frame, the system hugged the coast...I think January 2011 storm (I think that was an overrunning event)
 
1300m said:
Geez now I feel the way you did about the CMC with this. We just can't ever seem to get everything pulling in the same direction at the same time, until we're crashing and burning.
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Yeah now it went from we might be cooking with trends continuing to the GFS suite might be cooked doing it alone if the EC looks like the UK/CMC
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah now it went from we might be cooking with trends continuing to the GFS suite might be cooked doing it alone if the EC looks like the UK/CMC
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Lot of spread overall even at D5 with the two main features. We'll probably see movement in the next 48 hours towards the solution as these features at D5 now will be at D3 and they are going to be the main influencers on what happens.

Seems like the GFS/CMC are the furthest west with the TPV, which is critical to keeping the wave suppressed.

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I was feeling giddy up at 18z, had em all going in right direction, momentum for 1/5, espeacilly 0z GFS. But gotta hit pause button again thanks to 0z Can an UKie. Im sure ens will check the we still good box again here in a few.
Like everyone says on here. Dont bite or beleive on nothing outside of 120 hours. No matter how good or dire it looks.
 
i think 1/6 is a threat that has low nutritional value for most on this forum. If something happens with it, awesome, but i'm worried about it running out of steam and it being a sloppy cutting mess. the gfs was pleasant but may be a bit of an outlier with how neat and tidy it keeps the shortwave (which i think helps it both maintain low latitude and produce some extra forcing)
 
ILMRoss said:
i think 1/6 is a threat that has low nutritional value for most on this forum. If something happens with it, awesome, but i'm worried about it running out of steam and it being a sloppy cutting mess. the gfs was pleasant but may be a bit of an outlier with how neat and tidy it keeps the shortwave (which i think helps it both maintain low latitude and produce some extra forcing)
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I think for most of us, we are just trying to get flakes falling from the sky. It's almost been three years. When you haven't eaten in three years, anything is going to be filet mignon.
 
1300m said:
I think for most of us, we are just trying to get flakes falling from the sky. It's almost been three years. When you haven't eaten in three years, anything is going to be filet mignon.
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yeah fair lol. i've had a few inchers in richmond since living here (still way below average) so it hasn't been a complete shutout for me
 
186

Got some north trend here for the second storm
 
Murphy's Law: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." Last 4 years this has been the case. To warm, to cold. We have to be on the edge before it works out which mean low 30's high 20's . I think we have to be between 26-32 very fine line for snow.. My opinion.. which you know what that is worth
 
Winter storm threat around the 8th thru the 12th is very real. Seeing all the right things for this range. Suppressed look with an active tropical jet & major cold sweeping south. Could be a doozy. Would much rather see this at this range than a fantasy storm.
 
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