Welp.. 
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Pops
Member
Going to take shower but wow ..that westward high over this thing is sending it south reckon it can keep going more??
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I wish it didn’t just die after this but the vort max becomes a little too stacked causing it to die. Gives us some light snow though, can’t complain.
wow
Member
This is an excellent setup for wave 2
It would be pretty hilarious if after all the bickering @Webberweather53 and I have done about the two periods of interest if it snowed in both....
Well that’s helpful
Why can’t the models just agree. CMC is such a buzzkill. I mean it’s a full cutter this run
oh good grief. Long way to go here
Here comes the big dog
iGRXY
Member
All we did was drop the TPV down a 1000 miles to the border lol
This is going to be a close one. To eject, or not. This is the question. I think so.
wow
Member
Oh I want to post all the maps right now... GFS @ 201 setting up a beauty. Just end the run here before it finds a way to bungle it up lol
iGRXY
Member
Big incoming as long as the S/W continues to kick east
wow
Member
just beautiful
She’s going to give it a go I believe. All the players on the field. Beautiful!!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I’d be surprised if this isn’t squashed. Very suppressive cinnamon bun dropping south.
CMC and GFS were pretty close out to about D5, then the CMC really wound up the shortwave. A blend would have been ideal.
Snowing in San Antonio on this run, c'mon you can do it
iGRXY
Member
Guys we might be about to get a monster
Let's get a three-fer here and merge all of them
This is going to be one for the Epic Map thread.
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
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- 297
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So is it time to check the date on the hot dogs in the fridge in case I have to grill them?? Things are looking mighty good.. either that or it’s all a mirage since we are so snow starved? Big money, big money.. no whammies!!!
Snowing all the way to gulf coast of Tx..... if Corpus Christi sees snow before I do, I'm done Lol
iGRXY
Member
It’ll likely be suppressed but man it’s right at our fingertips
That’s fine. Looks good to me. I guarantee they will be a nice increase on the GEFS members tonight.
wow
Member
It'll f up the phasing to keep it more suppressed i'm sure but this is the ticket for a big one.
JLL1973
Member
Gonna be way too far south
iGRXY
Member
To echo what’s been said repeatedly after 3 different Operational runs so far … none of these models have a clue. They’re throwing darts and seeing what sticks. I mean the GFS dropped the TPV out of northern Canada down to the US border in one run.
Clear trend, at least on the GFS, to not leave that piece of energy stranded in the SW. It wants to kick. Next step will be to adjust the cold press so she can tilt a little then we can all enjoy the storm we all deserve. You just can’t draw it up any better
Snowflowxxl
Member
Perfect
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian was barking for 1/5 consistently, even as GFS and Euro op took a hiatis for a cycle or 2. Then we get everyone on board and the stupid thing goes an wets the bed tonight.
This is a monster storm. Great white buffalo of an opportunity here. You can’t fumble this one.
cmc has been very jumpy and i don't think it has a grip on this thing
one issue with this 1/6 shortwave is the route it's taking... not a lot of sources of natural baroclinicity. doesn't help that is forced due east the entire way. it becomes a qpf bomb in the mid south with some help from cyclogenisis off the rockies but beyond that there's not a solid lp to sustain it. muted results in carolinas/va makes sense
if that energy doesn't pinch in to baja and marches to the gulf and the timing on that tpv is better then the ceiling may actually be something march 1993ish. that might be the comp. it's that loaded
Not something you see everyday!
JLL1973
Member
Going to be hard to get a northward trend with that cold press. That’s some cold air
wow
Member
The 0z GFS is much closer to the pinnacle run for wave 2 ( the 12/29 oz Euro run). More interaction with the AJ to keep this thing from being crushed is key.
And this is why:
And this is why: