Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[Webberweather53]

We're so close to reeling in the big one during the 2nd week of January on the GFS, EPS, & GEPS.

If we can get the mean trough axis on the ensembles to dig/slow even just a little bit more like the GFS shows... oh boy.

No matter what though, we are in for a rather prolonged & brutally cold stretch after the first week of January.

 

[rburrel2]

Euro AI just cut off and hung back out first our wave… that’s new? Turns in to a major winter storm when it does pull out at hr198.

 

[Jessy89]

Euro AI just cut off and hung back out first our wave… that’s new? Turns in to a major winter storm when it does pull out at hr198.

Sounds similar to what the CMC been doing.


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[Webberweather53]

Euro AI just cut off and hung back out first our wave… that’s new? Turns in to a major winter storm when it does pull out at hr198.

Not gonna lie, I'd honestly prefer that scenario compared to where we currently are on most guidance (tho we are trending towards this more extreme AIFS camp)

An even slower wave lets the big high and arctic air mass over the Plains get out in front of this wave into a much better position for CAD/overrunning.

 

[Pops]

Not gonna lie, I'd honestly prefer that scenario compared to where we currently are on most guidance (tho we are trending towards this more extreme AIFS camp)

An even slower wave lets the big high and arctic air mass over the Plains get out in front of this wave into a much better position for CAD/overrunning.

View attachment 157890

Geez that’s a southern trend

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

We're so close to reeling in the big one during the 2nd week of January on the GFS, EPS, & GEPS.

If we can get the mean trough axis on the ensembles to dig/slow even just a little bit more like the GFS shows... oh boy.

No matter what though, we are in for a rather prolonged & brutally cold stretch after the first week of January.

View attachment 157886

View attachment 157883

View attachment 157884

With the -NAO/-AO signal it’s certainly possible. I’m ready to see how the model suites trend in this really favorable pattern coming up, we gotta squeeze the lemons while we have a few.


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[iGRXY]

Not gonna lie, I'd honestly prefer that scenario compared to where we currently are on most guidance (tho we are trending towards this more extreme AIFS camp)

An even slower wave lets the big high and arctic air mass over the Plains get out in front of this wave into a much better position for CAD/overrunning.

View attachment 157890

This look should work 9/10 times.

 

[SnowNiner]

Not gonna lie, I'd honestly prefer that scenario compared to where we currently are on most guidance (tho we are trending towards this more extreme AIFS camp)

An even slower wave lets the big high and arctic air mass over the Plains get out in front of this wave into a much better position for CAD/overrunning.

View attachment 157890

That’s what’s bothered me about the first one, there hasn’t been a lot of high pressure in the NE yet, and it’s a race between the real cold and the high getting there and the moisture.

It may happen, slow down which would great…but if not that’s fine it’s the start of a great period where anything could pop and cause a storm.

 

[Tarheelwx]

Looks like. Rain to ice to snow for n Ga, n SC, and most of NC.

 

[Twister]

Looks like. Rain to ice to snow for n Ga, n SC, and most of NC.

The first one?

 

[1300m]

Not gonna lie, I'd honestly prefer that scenario compared to where we currently are on most guidance (tho we are trending towards this more extreme AIFS camp)

An even slower wave lets the big high and arctic air mass over the Plains get out in front of this wave into a much better position for CAD/overrunning.

View attachment 157890

See now we can both agree on this! I don’t give a rip about when it snows and if the 1/6 threat has to hold back longer to give us a big dog, so be it.

 

[Webberweather53]

See now we can both agree on this! I don’t give a rip about when it snows and if the 1/6 threat has to hold back longer to give us a big dog, so be it.

Yeah let the wave really amp/slow down and get more cold air out in front of it & I'll finally be happy.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I mean…most of the SE US has at least a 50-60% or higher chance of seeing measurable snow…that in itself is encouraging to me.


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[CaryWx]

Is that .1" of liquid precip or .1" of snow because that's virtually nothing

 

[weather bubba]

I mean…most of the SE US has at least a 50-60% or higher chance of seeing measurable snow…that in itself is encouraging to me.


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That map tells you there is going to be some cold air in place when Central Florida is even showing a percentage above zero for snow!

 

[griteater]

Euro AI just cut off and hung back out first our wave… that’s new? Turns in to a major winter storm when it does pull out at hr198.

That's eye-popping to see the wave enter the west coast in S California. That's straight El Nino with blocking in place up top.

SV Clown map included below

 

[Rain Cold]

Lol look at that Greenland block. That is one for the ages.

 

[Webberweather53]

The Siberian Express is leaving the station

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

That's eye-popping to see the wave enter the west coast in S California. That's straight El Nino with blocking in place up top.

SV Clown map included below

That snow footprint looks similar to the 12Z UK

 

[BullCityWx]

That snow footprint looks similar to the 12Z UK

I thought the same thing. It could still all be a mirage but it does feel like momentum is trying to align with us

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Is that .1" of liquid precip or .1" of snow because that's virtually nothing

I believe it’s measurable snow (trace amounts) and that’s certainly a win in my book considering what happened last winter.


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[Rain Cold]

Lol look at that Greenland block. That is one for the ages.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

The Siberian Express is leaving the station



View attachment 157893

We need to start 2025 off on a good note (snow) and this is one thing we need to get a win, bring it on!


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

The Siberian Express is leaving the station



View attachment 157893

We need to start 2025 off on a good note (snow) and this is one thing we need to get a win, bring it on!


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[NCSNOW]

JB rule handed down from the old timers, is a wave entering CA usually exits east coast at same latitude.

 

[griteater]

Trend on the Euro AI with where the wave enters the west coast (last 8 runs)

 

[1300m]

That snow footprint looks similar to the 12Z UK

I know I'm a broken record, but especially when the UKMET starts displaying some consistency, it can score a coup. Historically, it has always been one of the best verifying models at H5 and this is all about those H5 features.

 

[TheBatman]

I’m gonna leave this here..

 

[1300m]

Trend on the Euro AI with where the wave enters the west coast (last 8 runs)

Dang, that's dramatic. Will be interesting to see if anything else follows it but certainly we've both noted the trends in the GFS/GEFS heading there.

 

[SD]

View attachment 157894I’m gonna leave this here..

About 63 other people did as well

 

[griteater]

Dang, that's dramatic. Will be interesting to see if anything else follows it but certainly we've both noted the trends in the GFS/GEFS heading there.

Never know how things end up, but yeah, if there is ever a case for south trends, it's when we have the heavier neg AO/NAO

 

[Tarheelwx]

The first one?

The second one although the separation seems to be less.

 

[1300m]

So far, 00z ICON inching southward with the western energy, but a bit less westward extension with the vortex to the east.

 

[Zactheplumber]

I hope the plumbers are ready (they're not)

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Im a plumber and im not ready

 

[TheBatman]

About 63 other people did as well

Hahaha. They probably did. I think I am getting old and forgetful.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[1300m]

TPV under Greenland block further east, not going to be as much suppression this run on the ICON it doesn't appear. Classic Miller B ensues.

 

[griteater]

Im a plumber and im not ready

Haha. I have a good one close by here. Much respect. But yeah, should do what you can to get ready just in case.

 

[iGRXY]

If the ICON doesn't pinch the S/W off in the southwest, this could get very interesting.

 

[NCSNOW]

To be continued. She only goes out to 180 unfortunately