Much better than the GFS for NC.
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
10 run trend on GEFS for when Storm 1 wave hits the west coast
Not sure if anybody has posted RAH's thoughts:
"Late Sunday night though Monday a deep trough will move through the
region, bringing the next chance for precipitation. It is currently
unclear how much/if any of the precipitation will be frozen as
models differ in timing and temperatures. However, this appears to
follow a Miller B type pattern, which can be conducive to frozen p-
types in our northern counties, so a chance of freezing rain and snow
were introduced mainly from 6-12Z early Monday morning, but as
models come to better agreement this is likely to change. Any frozen
precipitation that does fall is likely to be very short lived."
"Late Sunday night though Monday a deep trough will move through the
region, bringing the next chance for precipitation. It is currently
unclear how much/if any of the precipitation will be frozen as
models differ in timing and temperatures. However, this appears to
follow a Miller B type pattern, which can be conducive to frozen p-
types in our northern counties, so a chance of freezing rain and snow
were introduced mainly from 6-12Z early Monday morning, but as
models come to better agreement this is likely to change. Any frozen
precipitation that does fall is likely to be very short lived."
packfan98
Moderator
NAO ticking stronger and further west (and south) for the block. Pushing everything south.10 run trend on GEFS for when Storm 1 wave hits the west coast
Euro Weekly for January 19. Trend loops of 3 images from 10 days ago / 5 days ago / Today's run
12z spire 
Gulf Coast Weather
Member
CMC Member 09 would be absolutely glorious for the entire board
18z euro has the 6th/7th system in the TX panhandle still moving ESE.
Pilotwx
Member
NC N.Foothills, we need the cold high to slide NE across the NE to allow us a chance winds look to be NW drying moisture up and the Low is sliding to far off the coast. If history repeats like it use to systems seem to move farther NW as we get closer , watch the Monday system to see if the is the case, or maybe we can identify another trend. These first systems of any winter usually allow us to see trends good or bad.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Similar look as the 12z icon with that TPV and HP moving south
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Natedogg25
Member
Not sure if this had been shared yet…
“The limb has been climbed out on.
It's not a slam dunk, but that's definitely saying something.”
“The limb has been climbed out on.
It's not a slam dunk, but that's definitely saying something.”
Liking this trend with the euro. Regardless of the wave inconsistency, the overall wound up vortex over SE Canada has been ticking SW. the 18z euro looked way different with the wave overall 
Forevertothee
Member
18z vs 12z GEFS
Stormlover
Member
Straight from the CPS hazards outlook I posted, but he's going all in to put their name on it this far out.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That’s a decent increase for northern MS, AL, GA, western NC, VA…I like it
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Forevertothee
Member
And parts of the Upstate of SC.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I'm rather shocked at the southward extent of mixed precip on about half of the 174-hour members. I need to pay closer attention to this one even here it seems.
rburrel2
Member
To my eyes the 18z euro has folded like a cheap tent to the other models. Improvements everywhere at hr 132
Pops
Member
Interesting to see some southern shifts vs the USUAL..question is how low can it go??lol
Gut feeling says that with that arctic front right on the gulf and moisture pooling on top and the s/w digging into Texas, just a matter of time before we get a biblical snow storm weenie run for the gulf coast area.
-NAO doing work.
iGRXY
Member
Big improvement for pretty much everyone. And it's still going
Chattownsnow
Member
I like the -NAO shifting west with each run as well10 run trend on GEFS for when Storm 1 wave hits the west coast
Pops
Member
Yeah and getting inside day 7 and starting to see that blocking inch sw is encouraging…hopefully it will keep it up
Brent
Member
Oh okay I wanna see 20 inches in Arkansas 
rburrel2
Member
The 18z gefs is spitting out its highest snow mean of the year for the upstate. 2-3 inches and counting….
Edit:,4.1 inch mean for mby at hr360
Edit:,4.1 inch mean for mby at hr360
SnowmasterATL
Member
I would imagine more Sleet or Freezing Rain then snow with this set up!
Pops
Member
Hopefully sleet if it’s not snow
iGRXY
Member
Big increase in the GEFS snow mean this run .
Brent
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Quite a few cold January years in today’s CPC analog composite for 1/10
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I mean these are like The cold outbreaks. That’s pretty wild
Quite a few cold January years in today’s CPC analog composite for 1/10
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I can't wait to get a sneaky flurry on Friday
Pops
Member
Boy it would be great to be in snowshoe wv for bout the next 3weeks