Yep, unless it snows real hard, first off it’s already wet outside, ground temps are warm enough to grow Bermuda grass, and temps are gonna be super marginal during this event, gonna be very hard to see sticking snow
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I leave this here for you.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And? Just seeing some snow falling would be nice.
Broken024
Member
Agree
Avalanche
Member
My new sig
Agreed and I’m not someone who typically worries about ground temps, but let’s be real…along with the wet ground and just how abnormally warm ground temps are at the moment, it would be an uphill battle. I say just to see some flakes falling is a win, and getting a car topper or coating on the grass would be a huge bonus
18Z GEFS
Parker
Member
Those college of dupage maps never look like the actual GEFS that is gotten off of weatherbell or weather models. That thing is always way overinflated. It’s nice to look at, but it’s just not accurate.
It's not negative. It's honestly the most likely thing to happen. If you take the GFS snow map and stipulate only that the area where it shows accumulating snow will actually see some flakes falling, then you should also expect that the actual areas that will see accumulations would be the darker blues to purples. And it would be wise to cut those totals by half or two thirds.
But we're still a ways out and things can shift around a little bit.
Yay .1 Winning!!!!! I always triple his forecast lol
We all know all too well that deformation bands have a mind of their own .. that snow comes down hard enough anything is possible for as long as it’s over you … should I be the first to bring up thundersnow? ?
Sheesh a couple big members for this being so close .. still some things to work out here
WRAL has mentioned the potential for Sunday night/Monday morning:
"Rain showers remain likely tonight. Temperatures look colder Monday morning thanks to the earlier arrival of the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s. As the cooler air moves in behind the moisture a brief changeover to wet snow flakes can't be ruled out but it is not likely. Cold air chasing moisture is not a snowy set up for NC, instead we typically need the cold air here first."
"Rain showers remain likely tonight. Temperatures look colder Monday morning thanks to the earlier arrival of the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s. As the cooler air moves in behind the moisture a brief changeover to wet snow flakes can't be ruled out but it is not likely. Cold air chasing moisture is not a snowy set up for NC, instead we typically need the cold air here first."
Just read the GSP discussion. I'm not going to post but they said strong ul forcing Sunday afternoon could put the foothills in play for some snow. Im personally not expecting accumulation but the I 40N crowd should definitely pay attention for some flakes to fly. Better than nothing!
My only issue with the "cold chasing moisture" comments is this isn't your typical cold chasing moisture scenario. It's more of a ull and wave of lp forming, with backside deform band potential. I think of cold chasing moisture as more of a anafrontal scenario which this isn't but I'm probably being to optimistic lol
Avalanche
Member
Based on the NAM I wouldnt be shocked for areas in the Smokies northward to Roan. Although Roanoke on east to Martinsville, Danville have showed up. Curious to see how the precip field looks come verification time.
That deformation band running NE to SW might get the frontrange, foothills like you said.