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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Parker said:
I definitely understand that but if what the 3k nam spit out happens (likely won’t) then you’ll have accumulation in the grass and elevated surfaces easily. We will be in the 20s Monday morning. 6.8 inches of snow falling in 4 hours isn’t just not going to accumulate in grassy areas.

See 3/1/09 for example.
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NWS is forecasting low 30s for you on Monday morning.
 
Conservative, areas north of 40 should be on lookout, regardless of rain/snow this is going to wreak havoc with the Monday commutes 40/85/95. Models are now beginning to congeal on the deform, what a beast. SW extent should continue to grow, possibly even back to CLT for an hour or two. Top down, not 10:1
 
So legit question, if the winds on the earlier HRRR verify, would that actually allow for a blizzard warning since it's based on wind speed and not amounts?

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SimeonNC said:
So legit question, if the winds on the earlier HRRR verify, would that actually allow for a blizzard warning since it's based on wind speed and not amounts?

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Have to be sustained and for 3+ hours I believe .. we would just have gusts and probably not consistently for more than 2 hours ..
 
lol
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
WeatherNC said:
Conservative, areas north of 40 should be on lookout, regardless of rain/snow this is going to wreak havoc with the Monday commutes 40/85/95. Models are now beginning to congeal on the deform, what a beast. SW extent should continue to grow, possibly even back to CLT for an hour or two. Top down, not 10:1
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I agree this system has not matured yet!!
 
This could do well for us MS/Al folks with a low tracking through the state and tracking NE. Hope we can trend little further south for everyone else.
 
NWS in Nashville keeps insisting we get no accumulation at all. While I'm not expecting anything major, I have a hard time believing we don't get a dusting anyway.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Lols fine for MID NC up deform band will hit us regardless .. we just shouldn’t expect any big accumulation
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Don't be so sure, if it continues to lift NW you won't get any of that deform band. And I guarantee there've only been a handful on here expecting any accumulations and I'm not one of them
 
metwannabe said:
Don't be so sure, if it continues to lift NW you won't get any of that deform band. And I guarantee there've only been a handful on here expecting any accumulations and I'm not one of them
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Good for you man ?? I won’t be worried until tomorrow night storm hasn’t even developed yet plenty of time for small changes here and there .. pretty confident in flakes flying regardless
 
metwannabe said:
Don't be so sure, if it continues to lift NW you won't get any of that deform band. And I guarantee there've only been a handful on here expecting any accumulations and I'm not one of them
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A good part of NC probably ends as snow even with the NW trend as the remaining deformation band moves through behind the 850 low and the column crashes. But the thought of anything more than novelty/mulch whitening even along the I40 corridor is going down the tube
 
I'm probably grasping at straws but the soundings on the 18z GFS have to support a flizzard in the NC piedmont, especially north CLT towards Statesville, right?

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SD said:
A good part of NC probably ends as snow even with the NW trend as the remaining deformation band moves through behind the 850 low and the column crashes. But the thought of anything more than novelty/mulch whitening even along the I40 corridor is going down the tube
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Exactly major dub and then after we track future threats ?
 
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