Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Jlaw0097]

11PM Update
SW Mitchell County, NC
Temperature: 24.4°F
Wind Chill: 11.5°F
Wind: 15-20mph/Gusting to 25
Snow has stopped

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Consistently getting a range around 3.7-4.0” amounts here, basically 3.7-4” is the total in the books here for this event

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Upon closer inspection, more of a 75/25 sn/rn mix here on average.

 

[blueheronNC]

Finally all snow here but light

 

[jackendrickwx]

Snow mixes in some, but it’s mostly rain

 

[jackendrickwx]

Finally all snow here but light

mPing neighbor

 

[Gibby]

Im getting heavier now than I did this morning ?

 

[BullCityWx]

It’s definitely freshening up the glacier in the front yard

 

[BullCityWx]

Im getting heavier now than I did this morning ?

Where are you in H’borough? Just curious.

 

[Gibby]

Where are you in H’borough? Just curious.

Across from the hospital.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The best long range model was the GFS. I think the 3K NAM did the best with temps here, HRRR and RAP were too cold.

 

[NCSNOW]

The best long range model was the GFS. I think the 3K NAM did the best with temps here, HRRR and RAP were too cold.

The GFS had the ULL UP into western KY for several runs.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The GFS had the ULL UP into western KY for several runs.

True. I guess all the models has their ups and downs

 

[Chazwin]

The best long range model was the GFS. I think the 3K NAM did the best with temps here, HRRR and RAP were too cold.

In terms of Storm track, the GFS did horrible. It repeatedly pushed the ULL up into TN and KY.. I don’t give it too much of hit on that because all the models did poor with it… the ULL ended up going along I-20 and then I-85. As for the surface low, the GFS repeatedly developed the new low well too west, even inside the CAD. Finally the GFS eroded the CAD way too much, but we all know that’s a bias of the globals. Track wise, it feels like the Euro and UK did the best

 

[BullCityWx]

IMBY, the 3K and ICON(believe it or not) were the best on temps. The euro thought I’d get to 47 today - I made it to 33 for an hour.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

In terms of Storm track, the GFS did horrible. It repeatedly pushed the ULL up into TN and KY.. I don’t give it too much of hit on that because all the models did poor with it… the ULL ended up going along I-20 and then I-85. As for the surface low, the GFS repeatedly developed the new low well too west, even inside the CAD. Finally the GFS eroded the CAD way too much, but we all know that’s a bias of the globals. Track wise, it feels like the Euro and UK did the best

The UK was far too south until 48 hours

 

[Chazwin]

The UK was far too south until 48 hours

Sorry I actually meant the Icon, which pains me to say since I do not think much of that model

 

[J.C.]

I see the 3km NAM has snow showers tomorrow.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The wind is really howling outside. Also it’s still 34 outside, I never got under 32 the whole event ?

 

[J.C.]

The wind is really howling outside. Also it’s still 34 outside, I never got under 32 the whole event ?

It started getting windy when the winds shifted northwest away from the wedge. We are getting all of Chattanooga’s warm air. I dropped to 31.6 around 6pm, then all the way up to 34 after the wind shift. 33.4 now, and has been for hours.