Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

I honestly think those that live along I85 are probably sitting the best here. If we get a NW trend I think it will be cold enough based on our TPV trends to keep it mostly snow with more ice and mixing in the midlands. If the Vort continues the further digging and going negative trend, as with last weeks systems, then all of us will get a solid hit but the I20 corridor would probably be the honey hole.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UK wasn’t done, temps down in the 20s most of NC with snow continuing to fall

 

[Broken024]

UK wasn’t done, temps down in the 20s most of NC with snow continuing to fall View attachment 103285View attachment 103286View attachment 103287

Is there sleet/FR south?

 

[Metwannabe]

Here's the UKMET. Looks like it may have still been going at the end. Someone with better access to the maps can chime in, hopefully.

Judging by the H5 maps and looking at the precip maps the frame before this one, I say it's a weaker system sliding east, probably still snowing in S/E NC but I'm just guessing lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

UK wasn’t done, temps down in the 20s most of NC with snow continuing to fall View attachment 103285View attachment 103286View attachment 103287

I wonder is this system shown moving south or wrapping up? Or just moving East

 

[SnowNiner]

UK wasn’t done, temps down in the 20s most of NC with snow continuing to fall View attachment 103285View attachment 103286View attachment 103287

Would love to get the UKMET on board showing a piedmont hit. Normally it's pretty darn accurate in the mid-range. That and the euro combo would be money.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wonder is this system shown moving south or wrapping up? Or just moving East

Probably moving east the tilt wasn’t favorable for wrapping up

 

[iGRXY]

Models are basically all showing a winter storm of some sort but just differences in sizes. This system has the potential to be a 2-4" special that will be greatly appreciated at this point, but also one of those 6-12" mammoths for a lot of us. Just small tweaks here and there changes everything. Does the TPV continue moving south and interacting with our 50/50? Does the energy continue to be strong coming out of Canada and dig further south and allow it to close off? Where does the ULL track and can we get a nice surface low to form off the coast and really get things cranking?. Everything from a sweeping clipper to a beast of a system is on the table.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man that’s a amazing sounding, in mby on the Uk, it goes from this at 06z
To this at 12z

 

[Rain Cold]

The flow is pretty fast. IF we can get things to slow just a little bit and/or the northern stream wave picks up some southern stream energy, this will be a much bigger deal.

 

[$alt]

Well, this is as close as you can get around the KCAE area per the 12z OP GFS. There's more going on here, but to keep it simple; you'd want heavy precipitation.

 

[SnowNiner]

The flow is pretty fast. IF we can get things to slow just a little bit and/or the northern stream wave picks up some southern stream energy, this will be a much bigger deal.

It seems like a quick hitter, late bloomer system at the moment with limited qpf. I'm going to get greedy and hope that it amps/slows down a tick.

 

[iGRXY]

Well, this is as close as you can get around the KCAE area per the 12z OP GFS. There's more going on here, but to keep it simple; you'd want heavy precipitation.
View attachment 103292

You want to be within 5-10 miles of the Rain/Snow or Snow/ICE transition zone. That's typically where the heaviest rates can be found precip wise. That is still a snow sounding but could easily go to a sleet or or even freezing rain if it buckles enough.

 

[SD]

It'll be a little difficult to get a slow down and turn hard left up the coast with the strong vortex off of the coast of Maine. That said the cmc and to a lesser extent the uk started toying around with some phasing whicj could help the eastern carolinas as the sfc low really tried to bomb late.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UNBAN WEBB WE NEED HIM HERE

 

[BHS1975]

It looks like a good bit of the board will have potential with this, more so than the systems over the past several years.

I also am really encouraged by the temperatures, lots of cold available!

Yeap it's active like last year except much colder supply now.


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[Faco Thomas]

Well, this is as close as you can get around the KCAE area per the 12z OP GFS. There's more going on here, but to keep it simple; you'd want heavy precipitation.
View attachment 103292

Would also help if we move the Vortex futher south to provide more cold air for our areas. As it stands now(on the GFS anyway), Upstate SC/ South Central NC would be biggest winners.

 

[SD]

Jet ftw

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 103265
Quite an ice storm as well for the Pee Dee and particularly along and east of I77 and along and north of I20. Temps are in the 20's here so this absolutely would stick and probably most of it too.

Ground temps will be cold too.


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[Myfrotho704_]

? From the table setter storm itself