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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

I'll say this watching the Water Vapor compared to the models definitely for now the trajectory seems more S as models have it turning before getting into texas and curving and just hitting the NE corner of Texas as it moves eastwardly
Noticed that too… continues due south. Crossing OK/TX border now
 
Grit when you see this post, SD. What are your thoughts on Rah wording 40mph gust in AFD? Surely the models are making them state this or do they feel that way using old school meteorology, calculations.
 
Kinda crazy that mount airy and Wilkesboro went from 12” snow amounts to 1-3”. Gonna be a lot of sleet and ice moving in from east to west. NWS has now added quarter inch of ice into Surry/Wilkes. If anyone is gonna bust I think it’s NWS GSP they have hickory/Statesville close to 2” snow but have resisted cutting totals further south-west. They have way too much snow around Asheville imo.
 
Cashiers to lake toxaway looking like the sweet spot. Elevation on there side as well. @Parker sitting pretty. Look at this accums forecast ? View attachment 105941

I am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
 
north georgia
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

.UPDATE...

Short term trends are looking pretty good. Have made some minor
tweaks to afternoon highs and hourly temperatures across portions
of northwest and all of central Georgia based upon the clouds,
and across northeast Georgia based upon temperatures advecting
into the area due to the wedge.

For tonight, we have added Dade, Walker and Chattooga counties to
the Winter Storm Warning based upon increased snow accumulations
we are now expecting in those areas. We continue to monitor this
unfolding situation and will add additional counties if necessary
with future forecast updates.
 
Brad P. 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. I feel like a broken record but all I'm hearing is people ask and talk about snow. That's, not this storm it's a winter storm with a focus on the ice. Please ignore national non-local automated apps and sources showing crazy snow totals all week. This is an ice set-up pure and simple. Here's the latest. #cltwx #ncw #scwx #wcnc
 
Is this good or bad for west ga
The further south that depicts the low getting into Texas to the Gulf the better it doesn't prevent the Low from cutting thru GA like it has been but the further south that is in the south and the longer it will take for it to cut and also can make you wonder if models just are missing something
 
I am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
Ya’ll be safe. Luckily this cabin has a fireplace so if worse comes to worse we’re sleeping by the fire for a couple nights. Also have cast iron skillets for cooking. Also lots of locals live nearby so there will be plenty of help if needed. I see a small window of opportunity for sleet to mix in around lunchtime for about and hour as that low makes the transfer. Other than that it looks like we’re sitting in the middle of Poundtown, USA. Good luck buddy.
 
Just for my own edification, what do you consider it’s range?
Around 12 hours is usually when I start looking at it. It takes in real time info and constantly runs so you can see changes pretty quick. Still outside it’s range in the western Carolinas but further west you’re starting to get more into its range. Oddly enough the FV3 short range also has the cold core coming over the upstate and drops a lot more snow on the backend through Georgia and along and west of 77.
 
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