One reason why it raises my eyebrows at some of the shorter range stuff nudging the ULL further east. That really helps on the backend where you could crank out an additional 1-3” in a lot of places. If the ULL continues south then that’s something to watchThe further south that depicts the low getting into Texas to the Gulf the better it doesn't prevent the Low from cutting thru GA like it has been but the further south that is in the south and the longer it will take for it to cut and also can make you wonder if models just are missing something
Around 12 hours is usually when I start looking at it. It takes in real time info and constantly runs so you can see changes pretty quick. Still outside it’s range in the western Carolinas but further west you’re starting to get more into its range. Oddly enough the FV3 short range also has the cold core coming over the upstate and drops a lot more snow on the backend through Georgia and along and west of 77.
FFC is ina tough spot on this one. I dont envy them one bit.Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
.UPDATE...
Short term trends are looking pretty good. Have made some minor
tweaks to afternoon highs and hourly temperatures across portions
of northwest and all of central Georgia based upon the clouds,
and across northeast Georgia based upon temperatures advecting
into the area due to the wedge.
For tonight, we have added Dade, Walker and Chattooga counties to
the Winter Storm Warning based upon increased snow accumulations
we are now expecting in those areas. We continue to monitor this
unfolding situation and will add additional counties if necessary
with future forecast updates.
Pick up some rock salt and cat litter. My driveway in my old house in Sandy Springs would stay covered after everything else had melted. Easier to walk up backward than forward because it was so steep. I used every salt in the house to melt. The different color margarita salt looked lovelyI am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
Yet, a Met from the other board just posted:NAM and HRRR both have the back end sputtering out by the time the ULL gets through NGA. Not ideal.
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Both the 12Z RGEM and NAM now show a more solidified and organized area of snow behind the 500 low over ERN AL and NRN GA...it never made sense to me how disorganized and showery it was looking yesterday but models even in 2022 tend to struggle with precip intensity and coverage behind closed 500 lows in the SRN US because typically the surface feature is not yet well developed or is weak. They'll never underestimate those parameters in New England or the Great Lakes because often times by then the surface low is deep and organized and the system is more mature. I think places like Rome on east could see several inches.
HRRR for meNot sure I should put this in here,if not I'm sorry but which short range model should we really pay attention to the most?
RGEM imoNot sure I should put this in here,if not I'm sorry but which short range model should we really pay attention to the most?
Yet, a Met from the other board just posted:
Updated GSP afd says that is incorrect:This map needs to be emphasized more just about all guidance has shifted this way because of sleet and ZR. View attachment 105947
I'm on Signal Mountain. Seeing some light flurries.Haven't had time to analyze things yet, but getting reports of heavy flurries on Signal Mountain, just outside of Chattanooga from that band in NE AL, NW GA, SE TN. Interesting for sure.
Don’t envy whoever had to create this lolView attachment 105953