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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
Since someone gave us permission to keep using the Euro and GFS, here's the Euro ice/sn maps

1642464000-I9m1uhQpIiI.png


1642464000-GmM2gWZCMSA.png

1642464000-OzywXEfeSkA.png
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Met,
That ice map is terrifying.
What is the most accurate ice map available at this lead time? TIA
 
I’m struggling to understand why there are such large scale discrepancies among the mesoscale models. I don’t know how to reconcile this.


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superjames1992 said:
I still honestly expect those sleet maps are way underdone and a lot of what is showing up as ZR on those maps will turn out to be sleet, especially on the northern periphery. I’d be surprised if the predominant P-type here isn’t IP.
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I'm thinking the same. At least in the Triad region of NC. The depth of the cold should be enough in this area to prevent major Fzrn, at least I hope so.
 
superjames1992 said:
I still honestly expect those sleet maps are way underdone and a lot of what is showing up as ZR on those maps will turn out to be sleet, especially on the northern periphery. I’d be surprised if the predominant P-type here isn’t IP.
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I agree with you. I really feel like the algorithms that are used on these models to differentiate between precip types has difficulty distinguishing between sleet and ZR. The key to me on that is the soundings and what does the temperature at 925mb look like. We seeing a lot of areas showing freezing rain on the surface output, but the 925s are below freezing. If the temperatures at 925mb is below freezing, then most likely sleet is the predominant precip
 
Looking at the 925Mb maps from today's EMCF, I highly suspect the surface temps with the wedging will get below freezing as far south and west as the Atlanta airport. And should the low both surface and aloft continue ticking south as has been the trend of late, this could be a lot bigger deal for the fringe Ga. areas. MBY weenie over and out ;)
925th.conus.png
 
I don't feel terrible about this storm but a general consensus looks like 1-3 inches here of wet snow. Similiar to what we had last weekend or whenever that was. If that big heavy band shift just a little more south then anything is possible.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree with you. I really feel like the algorithms that are used on these models to differentiate between precip types has difficulty distinguishing between sleet and ZR. The key to me on that is the soundings and what does the temperature at 925mb look like. We seeing a lot of areas showing freezing rain on the surface output, but the 925s are below freezing. If the temperatures at 925mb is below freezing, then most likely sleet is the predominant precip
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Yeah, for most of Piedmont the storm looks to be snow and sleet with some freezing rain but not nearly as much as modeled.

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Chazwin said:
I agree with you. I really feel like the algorithms that are used on these models to differentiate between precip types has difficulty distinguishing between sleet and ZR. The key to me on that is the soundings and what does the temperature at 925mb look like. We seeing a lot of areas showing freezing rain on the surface output, but the 925s are below freezing. If the temperatures at 925mb is below freezing, then most likely sleet is the predominant precip
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Yes, the lack of IP they’re spitting out just doesn’t make sense to me from looking at the various maps. There’s no way we are getting ZR with the BL all the way up to 925 mb well below freezing. And from past experience, the maps have underdone IP and overdone ZR. I’d expect the same again, and am hopeful that it’s the case as I’d much rather have IP than ZR. ?
 
StormStalker said:
I don't feel terrible about this storm but a general consensus looks like 1-3 inches here of wet snow. Similiar to what we had last weekend or whenever that was. If that big heavy band shift just a little more south then anything is possible.
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There are many indications of more than that for you.
 
Stormlover said:
There are many indications of more than that for you.
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For all parts west of Atlanta and north of I-20 going back in AL it's all going to depend on that ULL and just how much moisture feed it has and how far it travels eastward before being pulled away
 
WxGSO said:
I'm thinking the same. At least in the Triad region of NC. The depth of the cold should be enough in this area to prevent major Fzrn, at least I hope so.
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Yeah I agree with this, more sleet, less (much less) ZR. Snow looks about right to me.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yes, the lack of IP they’re spitting out just doesn’t make sense to me from looking at the various maps. There’s no way we are getting ZR with the BL all the way up to 925 mb well below freezing. And from past experience, the maps have underdone IP and overdone ZR. I’d expect the same again, and am hopeful that it’s the case as I’d much rather have IP than ZR. ?
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That is true… now I’m not saying that there want be some ZR mixed in for those areas, but I think the glaze will be more in the line of .1-.2” and not over .25”… it will be enough to make the sleet and snow that does fall be like concrete. As for the highest and most damaging ice amounts, .3-.5”+ in NC, I’m favoring the Hwy 1 corridor.
 
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