Z
Zander98al
Guest
Peep the below freezing temps in central Alabama midday SaturdayCAD much stronger so far on the HRRR despite the slight low wobble north.
12z
18z
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
HRRR is really picking up on the Dynamic cooling this run as the snow line continues to drive south.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Casual 7 inches from the first thump, now the death band on the backside ?
Much colder with the CAD in atlanta 
NWMSGuy
Member
According to HRRR 18Z this doesn't even touch TN.
Stormsfury
Member
IF the wedge strength is being underplayed (like normal), continue to expect shifts south.. I still don't expect the primary low to cut thru the wedge (unless it stays on the wedge boundary)
Granted, southerly flow aloft will be ramping, which MAY have the SFC low try to ride along the coast...but with every depiction I've seen so far, the wedge boundary continues to reside offshore out towards the Western Wall of The Gulf Stream... That's where I'd expect a jump to occur or the primary to likely take it's path.
Guidance historically misjudges the erosion down in the Coastal Plain in SC.
Expect further downward adjustments on temps, track, and column crash with such potential heavy rates before latent heat processes can take over
Granted, southerly flow aloft will be ramping, which MAY have the SFC low try to ride along the coast...but with every depiction I've seen so far, the wedge boundary continues to reside offshore out towards the Western Wall of The Gulf Stream... That's where I'd expect a jump to occur or the primary to likely take it's path.
Guidance historically misjudges the erosion down in the Coastal Plain in SC.
Expect further downward adjustments on temps, track, and column crash with such potential heavy rates before latent heat processes can take over
Won’t verify but fun to look at, sheesh.
JLL1973
Member
its too far south. other models are not showing this
That’s what happened in December of ‘02
Snowflowxxl
Member
iGRXY
Member
I am already noticing up and along 85 on both the NAM and HRRR soundings that the warm nose that was initially forecasted isn't quite as strong and heavier precip that is really getting moved over is changing over to snow again.
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Zander98al
Guest
It's two runs by the HRRR on that though. A trend to watch. Especially if 00z HRRR does it
PARSONBROWN
Member
Im just glad potential snow event during the daytime here in N. AL. Tired of staying up all night waiting for it. Feel pretty good about some good totals around here somewhere.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Anyone for a Triple barrel low for a few hours? This just looks ridiculous. If this actually is a case then maybe it'd be why the models are so lost as a collective entity on what to do with it.
There’s certainly a argument that Charlotte and points north could have 1-3 hours of heavy FGEN induced snow, it’s possible, typically it rips under those bands
PARSONBROWN
Member
Thats some serious banding putting down wet heavy rates for N.AL. wow
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Hey 00z hrrr comes out tonight and it's doing this I think I'll start putting some stock in it. I need a little hope when it comes to snow. Hot cup of java and watching the snow fall
I think that's why GSP has kept the mtns/foothills all snow. They knew the globals wasn't picking up on the dynamic cooling.