NoSnowATL
Member
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The biggest thing I’m seeing right now from this Euro run is it continues with FGEN for the SC Upstate over to CLT metro. It’s been very consistent with that for the last couple days
packfan98
Moderator
For areas that stay all frozen (in whatever form), that's going to be a mess!Euro precip totals...no pushover
In a perfect world we get the CAD signatures near the WFA and RGEM models on the start of the event and then the Low riding thru southern AL/cutting thru S.GA to Savannah and then up coast before lifting off which will maximum the ULL rolling thru
griteater
Member
Shows well how the mid level flow will bank strongly into the Blue Ridge given the 850 low orientation, and then have the downsloping and drying on the other side in E TN
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'd not hold your breath on the backside unless it's 6 hours out from being at your doorstep. Too many times it's overmodeled or too light. In few instances will it get enough moisture to really perform but you've got to be in the right place at the right time.
Ron Burgundy
Member
C
Source?
Which is essentially what the 12z NAM run yesterday did...
griteater
Member
Euro 3hr precip rates....runs forcefully into the upstate
That’s good for a lot of areas just too heavy for extreme icing.Euro 3hr precip rates....runs forcefully into the upstate
Euro ice totals?
iGRXY
Member
griteater
Member
Agree, it does cut down some on icing. Long duration, lighter event is more efficient....but then there's the snow and sleet side
griteater
Member
I think precip with this one is going to be the real deal. The overrunning forcing is excellent, and that's the most reliable precip you can have. It's just not going to be super long duration (9-12 hours)
Since someone gave us permission to keep using the Euro and GFS, here's the Euro ice/sn maps
Charlotte metro will max out around 0.25” ZR. The bigger totals south or east prob won’t verify maybe 0.25” in isolated areas due to warming and heavy rates. I’ve spent a lot of time with ice maps to know the bottom half sometimes don’t verify more than a glaze to 0.1”. With that said, some will see ice storm warning criteria with a bullseye around Charlotte north imo maybe even to Asheboro near the NC state Zoo area
Nerman
Member
Euro last 3 12z runs:
Today
Yesterday
Wednesday
It's been moving SE incrementally
Today
Yesterday
Wednesday
It's been moving SE incrementally
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Feels like the euro has been the most consistent so far out of the global models. Lines up well with the mesoscale models. My gut tells me that the temps are a little higher forecasted then what they verify as in Alabama. Seen enough snow events in my short life to know winter weather is wacky. Feels like I've had a couple years took off my lifespan from this one event. Central Alabama is flirting with a REAL thin line in terms of impacts if even a tiny adjustment is made
Ron Burgundy
Member
Trending stronger and longer with the CAD. C’mon Kang!