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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

DarkKnight said:
It’s still works out ok. View attachment 105418View attachment 105419
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This one definitely has way more boom or bust potential then the last one. The gfs wants to snow hole this area the last few runs while the euro was a huge increase at 00z last night. Some people are going to be really happy while others not far away will be very sad. Patiently waiting on 18z euro as the 06z was better then gfs but was cut in half on snow from the 00z.
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DadOfJax said:
Yea, not much doing for AL
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Yep unfortunately. Unless there's a snow day surprise. Which isn't out of the realm of possibility. It'd probably have to do with the CAD being more stout and the low being further to the south. But time will tell. I'll be happy with atleast 1 inch though lol
 
This forecast like many southern weather events are just gonna be to tough to navigate it seems like we always either over perform or under perform in most part of the south. It seems outside of NE GA and parts of NC/SC interior nothing else is seemingly locked in even less the 2 days from onset. The areas out west MS,AL, Western GA thru I-20 thru Atlanta and also parts of SC won't know what to expect until we most likely see radar returns.

Western side of SE is so dependent on the ULL and a strong precip band being on the backend and not being completely pulled NE dependent on the low track and Easterly parts of SC and NC are dependent on the CAD and low track as well to be more coastal.

Things like ULL and backside moisture and CAD strength won't be absolutes until we see it with our own eyes.
 
Zander98al said:
Yep unfortunately. Unless there's a snow day surprise. Which isn't out of the realm of possibility. It'd probably have to do with the CAD being more stout and the low being further to the south. But time will tell. I'll be happy with atleast 1 inch though lol
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You will have to drive way north just to see that inch brother.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When will the warnings get hoisted?
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I think they’ll wait until the overnight update.. at least for GSP, CAE, RAH…there will probably be different types of warnings. Just for GSP they may have to issue Winter Storm Warnings, Winter WX Advisories, Ice Storm Warnings, and honestly for some of the mountain area in NC… Blizzard Warnings
 
9am sun euro
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Call me stupid, but the cams y'all were talking about that overdue the cold. And snow, may be a actual good thing to look at. Because that would probably be what the boom in the forecasts look like to a degree. If the other models misforcast the depth of cold. Just my 2 cents. But if your looking for a snowy surprise check the cams. Still would like to see how far the HRRR will put the low towards the south. Any shift south will pay dividends for chances of snow for alabamians
 
Love how the LP at 48 wants to visit Dega, then go to Myrtle Beach at 54. It is consistent though. Perhaps a bit more robust with the wedge. Keeps DPs above 32 in ATL until hr 54, but that's when the ULL rotates in.

If the SL would stay further south through AL, that would be better for backside stuff.
 
We can still use the Euro, GFS, etc as guidance but now we're heading into the time frame of them being less a bit more obsolete. Short-term models are pretty much going to start telling the tale from this point moving forward. Beginning with the NAM and then of course the HRRR and REGM.
 
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