From GSP: Very Good Read
operational models are in relatively good agreement with the 500 mb low center track atop our area late weekend. The GFS remains a
few hours faster than the ECM/CMC solutions, but they all lift the system across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late
Sunday and Sunday night. The ECM/CMC mean sea level pressure prognostics have a slightly farther south/southeast track of the
associated surface low center, mainly across the coastal plain. This is favored given the strength of the low-level ridge north of the
forecast area and it will likely contribute to slightly colder profiles and boundary layer temperatures than indicated on the operational GFS. QPF will be robust in the 06Z to 18Z Sunday period,
with strong upper jetlet divergence, deep-layer QC convergence, and strong warm advection at low-levels. Anticipate that the zero degree
850 mb isotherm may pivot near the NC/SC line to create a very sharp gradient in snowfall from the NC foothills down into the Upstate, but this remains highly subject to change.
The current thinking is that most of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the Charlotte metro area will see some degree of warm nosing to undercut
potential snow totals and generate more sleet, with more freezing rain especially likely at times along and southeast of I-85. 850 to
700 mb frontogenesis will likely sharpen up along and east of the mountains to enhance precipitation rates Sunday morning. The phasing
process of this southern system back into the northern stream may accelerate the low passage. That could be a slight limiting factor,
but it may not matter much given the otherwise excellent potential for significant wintry accumulations across the region as it stands.
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