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Pattern Jammin' January

The 6Z GFS was the warmest yet and downright mild in the SE for early Feb. But ironically, the 6Z FV3 was one of the coldest runs yet for early Feb. Which is more believable?
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z GFS was the warmest yet and downright mild in the SE for early Feb. But ironically, the 6Z FV3 was one of the coldest runs yet for early Feb. Which is more believable?
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Larry, of course my knee-jerk reaction is to say the FV3 but it's probably somewhere in between. In that time period, the MJO is supposed to move into COD (phase 8/COD using your graph from the other day) and that would lend itself to be a good indicator for colder so I guess there is that.
 
12z Nam mid week system. Nothing big but something interesting.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_42.png
 
accu35 said:
12z Nam mid week system. Nothing big but something interesting.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_42.png
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It's not as impressive as it seems. If you check the soundings, it's very dry in the DGZ. With that said, the narrow band behind the line has been increasing for real wintry precip vs what appears to be. It is good for TN though.
snku_acc.us_ov.png

On the other hand, the ZR depicted seems to be more troublesome as it could verify easier.
zr_acc.us_ov.png
 
I would say if we still have this mid week chance showing up after the 12z run of the FV3 we should start a thread.
 
Snow Showers per 12z GFS keep holding on a little more and more further east into GA for the mid-week system, doesn't seem to be much in the way of accumlation but would be fun to wake up to snow showers in the AM.
 
That storm might actually have legs too, other modeling has been showing something for then. Hopefully we're able to haul in either the weekend one, or the last of the month one.
 
The storm on the Canadian next week looks like a true southern slider and is in the time frame that Webber spoke of a few days back. It also follows this weekend storm bombing out in the northeast. I believe this is a better setup than this coming weekend for the southeast as a whole.
 
BillyMurrayWx said:
The storm on the Canadian next week looks like a true southern slider and is in the time frame that Webber spoke of a few days back. It also follows this weekend storm bombing out in the northeast. I believe this is a better setup than this coming weekend for the southeast as a whole.
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Remember when we said this about this weekends storm and how the January 24th storm would "set up" for it?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Remember when we said this about this weekends storm and how the January 24th storm would "set up" for it?
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I do. We still haven’t had that yet either but we do have some models now around 5 days out showing this one bombing out so maybe this is the one. I know it would definitely make me feel better going forward about the pattern. The 12z Gefs continues to break down the ridge in the West by the end of month too
 
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To everyone chasing a Nw trend: What the Euro showed at the end of the run actually has that kind of potential. Favorable high pressure. This is our bread and butter..all of this is assuming we hold the general look for the next 4-5 days
 
GaWx said:
The 6”+ showing up on the 12Z Euro 1/30-31 in SW/SC GA cities like Tifton and Albany would likely be alltime snowstorm records as they were south of the heaviest snow of Feb of 1973, when they got about 3”:

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I think that the region is due for another event like this one, they seem to come every 40-60 years. I know that all of the old timers in my area apparently always said that the amount from the 1973 storm was basically double what they got during the previous marquee event for the region (Feb. 1914).
 
As I delve into this a little more, what the CMC and I’m assuming the Euro Is showing this as well, it’s a pattern breakdown hit. Western ridge falls apart with waves beginning to slam into the west coast. This threat holds some value because of this. Just Jimmy’s take
 
You know we have multiple storm chances showing for the next 7 to 10 days and not one forecast for the next ten days are showing a snow symbol yet or none are talking about the chance of snow yet. :(
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As I delve into this a little more, what the CMC and I’m assuming the Euro Is showing this as well, it’s a pattern breakdown hit. Western ridge falls apart with waves beginning to slam into the west coast. This threat holds some value because of this. Just Jimmy’s take
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We get some of our best storms as the pattern relaxes.


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whatalife said:
We get some of our best storms as the pattern relaxes.


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It is no coincidence that the12Z Euro has for the big snow 1/30-31 that includes your area a pretty weak low crossing central FL. You probably already realize this. But in case you don’t, most of the biggest Columbia snows were from fairly weak to weak lows (while still in the Gulf) that later crossed central FL, not N FL.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
The Euro is showing totals in southern ga and SC but the EPS is showing highest totals in mountains and TN.
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Meh that's the ensembles for you. And the EPS has a lot of them. Although I haven't really looked into that threat hard, from what I have seen, it has legs as a system and the outcomes being suggested are all over the place.

We can't get a clue on a system that is happening this weekend (as I KNOW that song and dance ain't over based off past history), so just imagine how long it's going to be for that one?
 
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