Larry, of course my knee-jerk reaction is to say the FV3 but it's probably somewhere in between. In that time period, the MJO is supposed to move into COD (phase 8/COD using your graph from the other day) and that would lend itself to be a good indicator for colder so I guess there is that.The 6Z GFS was the warmest yet and downright mild in the SE for early Feb. But ironically, the 6Z FV3 was one of the coldest runs yet for early Feb. Which is more believable?
It's not as impressive as it seems. If you check the soundings, it's very dry in the DGZ. With that said, the narrow band behind the line has been increasing for real wintry precip vs what appears to be. It is good for TN though.12z Nam mid week system. Nothing big but something interesting.
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I'd say tomorrow if things look good feel free to fire one up. Maybe even this evening.I would say if we still have this mid week chance showing up after the 12z run of the FV3 we should start a thread.
I'd say tomorrow if things look good feel free to fire one up. Maybe even this evening.
Oh Canada!CMC really blowing up storm 2.
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If we still have it tomorrow I would gladly start a thread. It's just being noticed more today.need another thread for the end of month time
CMC really blowing up storm 2.
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The storm on the Canadian next week looks like a true southern slider and is in the time frame that Webber spoke of a few days back. It also follows this weekend storm bombing out in the northeast. I believe this is a better setup than this coming weekend for the southeast as a whole.
I do. We still haven’t had that yet either but we do have some models now around 5 days out showing this one bombing out so maybe this is the one. I know it would definitely make me feel better going forward about the pattern. The 12z Gefs continues to break down the ridge in the West by the end of month tooRemember when we said this about this weekends storm and how the January 24th storm would "set up" for it?
Euro throws another solution at end of runView attachment 12354View attachment 12354
Shocker12 eps is pretty excited about next Tuesday and Wednesday
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Don’t be shy... let’s SEE IT12 eps is pretty excited about next Tuesday and Wednesday
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I think that the region is due for another event like this one, they seem to come every 40-60 years. I know that all of the old timers in my area apparently always said that the amount from the 1973 storm was basically double what they got during the previous marquee event for the region (Feb. 1914).The 6”+ showing up on the 12Z Euro 1/30-31 in SW/SC GA cities like Tifton and Albany would likely be alltime snowstorm records as they were south of the heaviest snow of Feb of 1973, when they got about 3”:
View attachment 12360
Its gonna be completely different in 12 hours lol no need to be so excited.Don’t be shy... let’s SEE IT
Don’t be shy... let’s SEE IT
I will post and no need to give up.Its gonna be completely different in 12 hours lol no need to be so excited.
As I delve into this a little more, what the CMC and I’m assuming the Euro Is showing this as well, it’s a pattern breakdown hit. Western ridge falls apart with waves beginning to slam into the west coast. This threat holds some value because of this. Just Jimmy’s take
The Euro is showing totals in southern ga and SC but the EPS is showing highest totals in mountains and TN.90 percent of this is next week storm. View attachment 12367
We get some of our best storms as the pattern relaxes.
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The Euro is showing totals in southern ga and SC but the EPS is showing highest totals in mountains and TN.