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Pattern Jammin' January

Even the eps is starting to sniff something out
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We don’t need record breaking cold to get a good snowstorm, just seems like it! Give me some mid / upper 30s for highs, upper 10s / low 20s airmass a day or two before a storm and we will be ok! That’s only about 15-20 degrees below normal, type of cold.
 
SnowNiner said:
Somebody's going to get a huge storm with that one. At this point probably the northeast. Eps has more ridging over the top than the gefs pushing the pv down, need that to continue.
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And we should be cheering this one on if it’s a southern storm or NE storm because it’s this storm that throws us into the ice box for the 2-3 storms right behind it.

Storm signals are:

20th (likely another ice threat or NE monster)
22-23rd (gfs, fv3, cmc all have very suppressed storm)
25th ( another suppressed storm)
28th (fv3 end of run system)


All of these threats revolve around the 20th system bombing out and throwing arctic air down into the US.
 
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
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Negative nao is coming ... ensembles picking up on it ...
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
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Agreed. I've given up on a real block until the end of January and in to February, that's when the weeklies showed it's supposed to show up. My hope is it actually does at that time. Until then, we have the cold funneling into the south east, so who knows? Hopefully somehow the flow and storm track get to our south.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
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If only it were January!?
 
Rain Cold said:
It is discouraging to me not to see the NAO block that the models were hinting at yesterday. I’m not sure why it’s so impossible to actually get that feature to show up. But I think, at the very least, we can say the pattern change is getting underway. And like others have said, we should have multiple threats to track for at least part of the SE.
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Any winter NAO will be transient or fleeting from now until the end of time. That and a strat warm actually helping are the 2 things we know by now.

Yay for the EPO.
 
Speaking of EPO...let’s see how quickly it does go positive. In our “good” winters the models will try and rush it positive.

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Storm5 said:
At this point I could care less if we get anything sustained or not . Models always seem to rush breaking down ridges anyway

If these looks hold through the weekend I’m going all in on the 20th-25th


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I’m with you. No talk until then.


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Kylo said:
Keep dropping. Just a 100-200 miles SE.

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I briefly alluded to this yesterday, it’s wash, rinse, repeat of 2013-14 & 2014-15 with the EPS when it comes to -EPOs, the depth of the Canadian vortex is usually way underdone and too far north in the extended and medium range. Given how active the STJ is going to be the next few weeks and has been this winter, it should be evident to most by now we are trying to put together my personal favorite & classic recipe for a nice southern US overrunning event/southern slider.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I briefly alluded to this yesterday, it’s wash, rinse, repeat of 2013-14 & 2014-15 with the EPS when it comes to -EPOs, the depth of the Canadian vortex is usually way underdone and too far north in the extended and medium range. Given how active the STJ is going to be the next few weeks and has been this winter, it should be evident to most by now we are trying to put together my personal favorite & classic recipe for a nice southern US overrunning event/southern slider.
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Yeah, good things happen when that shifts SE.
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