• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

NWMSGuy said:
Any thoughts on the mid week system for the Mid-South? FV3 isn’t backing off.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is crazy showing these amounts . Something is wrong with this model
7d86557b7d251e16be2bb9756a6425b8.jpg
a this l


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah this is crazy showing these amounts . Something is wrong with this model
7d86557b7d251e16be2bb9756a6425b8.jpg
a this l


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yes, what is concerning is that eventually we will have to use this as the main model once the older version is gone. Just trying to figure out if it’s going to start showing a new look over the coming runs.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Weather from times of old.... they had no computer models.. yes.. some of this stuff you hear is nutty... but I know and have observed this to be true.. tons of black birds on the ground... thunder then 10 days later.... extreme cold, snow, ice , or any of the mentioned... I have legitimacy on this... passed down by my family.. my great great grandfather was the sheriff of Cherokee county North Carolina... he married a Cherokee Indian... they only knew things of weather by observing nature.
Click to expand...

Groundhogzilla is back. Hope this doesn't jinx us with this system....
 
Even if we don’t get snow this Sunday, we still have a lot of opportunities.
 
Whether this goes on deaf ears or not I still think it should be said to defend JB a little ... he has really predicted this pattern in a huge way all the way since before hurricane season .. he called the active season for us which then led to this amazing backloaded winter pattern and I’ve been listening to him everyweek and although everyone hates on him a little ... you have to give him credit he called all of this .. (you can put in banter but I thought since it is about the pattern I’d keep it in here but it’s okay if you have to move)
 
  • Like
Reactions: IWC
Nick_boynton_ said:
Whether this goes on deaf ears or not I still think it should be said to defend JB a little ... he has really predicted this pattern in a huge way all the way since before hurricane season .. he called the active season for us which then led to this amazing backloaded winter pattern and I’ve been listening to him everyweek and although everyone hates on him a little ... you have to give him credit he called all of this .. (you can put in banter but I thought since it is about the pattern I’d keep it in here but it’s okay if you have to move)
Click to expand...
When you say nearly every year that the winter is going to be insane, you're bound to be right eventually. He's calling for a backloaded winter pattern in an El Nino, which is usual. I don't really like JB, and I think he's pretty weenie, but I still think he sometimes has useful things to say.
 
The 12z NAM and 12z ICON want nothing to do with the midweek system. 12z GFS and 12z Canadian still showing a changeover before precip ends.

snku_acc.us_ov.pngsnku_acc.us_ov (1).png
 
12z GEFS for midweek. 100% of the members have at least some snow for much of the board west of the Apps but look how random the members are with the areas of 1" or 2"+ accumulations lol. Literally like throwing darts. If this pans out, it's probably going to end up being a short range now-cast special.

GEFSSE_prec_snens_108.png


GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_108.png
 
Work has become an 18 hour, 7 day a week affair through the end of the month (but then, who in your Curmudgeon's profession can complain about a feast) ... So anyways ...
Have had no time to post and very little time to read, and even less time to study ...
So thank all of you who are keeping it current and informative for all of us (and me especially) ... ;)
Just not to be a stranger, and to contribute what little bit (and it's admittedly a very little bit) that 5 minutes permits, how's about this for smiles ...

610temp.new.gif814temp.new.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Work has become an 18 hour, 7 day a week affair through the end of the month (but then, who in your Curmudgeon's profession can complain about a feast) ... So anyways ...
Have had no time to post and very little time to read, and even less time to study ...
So thank all of you who are keeping it current and informative for all of us (and me especially) ... ;)
Just not to be a stranger, and to contribute what little bit (and it's admittedly a very little bit) that 5 minutes permits, how's about this for smiles ...

View attachment 12163View attachment 12164
Click to expand...
If we can keep the systems rolling... this place will be buzzing ... anyone have the precip map during the time frame ?
 
How do the 12z EPS maps look for days 10+? GEFS appears to show some brief moderation, I’m thinking we may see a brief warmup before the cold reloads?
 
I know others have mentioned this, but maybe something for some to watch out for.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_45.pngnamconus_T2m_seus_46.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Apologies. Trend loop malfunction ??‍♂️ Sometimes I really hate TT but it’s all I’ve got
Click to expand...

I need to apologize back to you. Reason? The 0Z GEFS based NCEP AO this morning stayed near neutral rather than dropping to negative like I expected. I was so confused by this that I called Radiant and talked to a met there. He agreed with me that there is a classic blocking signature of well above normal 500 mb hts over Greenland, the so-called Greenland Block...what we want to see. The problem though is that the technical definition of -NAO is for not just above normal hts over Greenland but also below normal hts in the N Atlantic well south of Greenland. Whereas the above normal hts over Greenland are very much there, the below normal hts over the N Atlantic are not as they are also above normal. That is why the NAO is neutral. So, this is a very desirable textbook Greenland block, but on paper it is still a neutral NAO due to the N Atlantic.
 
GaWx said:
I need to apologize back to you. Reason? The 0Z GEFS based NCEP AO this morning stayed near neutral rather than dropping to negative like I expected. I was so confused by this that I called Radiant and talked to a met there. He agreed with me that there is a classic blocking signature of well above normal 500 mb hts over Greenland, the so-called Greenland Block...what we want to see. The problem though is that the technical definition of -NAO is for not just above normal hts over Greenland but also below normal hts in the N Atlantic well south of Greenland. Whereas the above normal hts over Greenland are very much there, the below normal hts over the N Atlantic are not as they are also above normal. That is why the NAO is neutral. So, this is a very desirable textbook Greenland, block but on paper it is still a neutral NAO due to the N Atlantic.
Click to expand...
Need that Icelandic low coupled with Heights over Greenland. You would think you couldn’t have one without the other?
 
J.C. said:
I know others have mentioned this, but maybe something for some to watch out for.

View attachment 12170View attachment 12171
Click to expand...
Yeah I mentioned it yesterday. Looks like an in-situ CAD if it develops. DPs are quite low at the start and the high slides from the MA as a 1040 into the Atlantic as a 1035 and decays to a 1030 later. I think the NAM is on an island though so it may only be worth watching. CAD events failed twice this year and I don't think third time is a charm.
namconus_ref_frzn_us_44.png
 
The GFS has turned back around to supporting a little something for midweek. Isn't much but it's something to look at.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Need that Icelandic low coupled with Heights over Greenland. You would think you couldn’t have one without the other?
Click to expand...

I'm honestly confused because the definition found here mentions surface pressures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High."

So, a +NAO/-NAO is when the Icelandic low and Azores high are strong/weak. So, does this mean it really doesn't necessarily correlate all that strongly with the 500 mb Greenland block, itself? Learning something new every day.

Edit: A weaker Icelandic low, meaning not so low pressures there may mean a better chance for higher 500 mb hts over nearby Greenland, however. Maybe that's how it works.
So, right now, perhaps the Icelandic sfc low is weak but the Azores sfc high is not weak?

From now on, I'm going to try to remember to refer specifically to Greenland Block and refrain from saying -NAO since that's harder for me to determine. Maybe that's why there have been a good number of SE winter storms even with a +NAO. Maybe some of these still had a Greenland Block??


"Nao_indices_comparison.jpg
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I'm honestly confused because the definition found here mentions surface pressures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High."

So, a +NAO/-NAO is when the Icelandic low and Azores high are strong/weak. So, does this mean it really doesn't necessarily correlate all that strongly with the 500 mb Greenland block, itself? Learning something new every day.

Edit: A weaker Icelandic low, meaning not so low pressures there may mean a better chance for higher 500 mb hts over nearby Greenland, however. Maybe that's how it works.
So, right now, perhaps the Icelandic sfc low is weak but the Azores sfc high is not weak?


"View attachment 12176
Click to expand...
I guess the Icelandic low is actually what’s doing the blocking? I read somewhere that looking at a 500 map it’s easy to spot a +-NAO by looking at the heights over Greenland. Heights over Greenland are a symptom and not the cause. Interesting
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just went to the FV3 and man, it still looks like a hit for the western part of the SE. If the western part of the SE scores a decent storm then the FV3 has scored a coup there.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. If you trend the last 5 snow fall total runs of the GFS at hour 84 on the 18z you can see that it’s starting to move toward the FV3. That’s my observation anyway.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Agree with this. If you trend the last 5 snow fall total runs of the GFS at hour 84 on the 18z you can see that it’s starting to move toward the FV3. That’s my observation anyway.
Click to expand...
By looking at Memphis forcast they are not going with the fv3.
 
The overall guidance (aside from the FV3) is for a low end event midweek but what the heck might as well have a thread, plus there's a dual threat. Possible in-situ on the front end east of the Apps and possible changeover to accumulating snow on the backend west of the Apps. One or both could flop or maybe we get lucky and score twice.


GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_102.pngGEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_102.pngGEFSSE_prec_snens_102.png
 
Last edited:
Strong signal on the GEFS for another event at the end of the month. Should be another good snow mean when the run finishes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top