@Rain Cold Lakes low? No problem
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So far, the 0Z GEFS is supporting the colder 0Z GFS just as the colder 18Z GEFS did the 18Z GFS. Part of this is a developing strong -NAO. If it could get very strong as this run continues, we should see a big NAO drop on the NCEP site tomorrow, especially for days 10 and 14.
The 0Z GEFS is in very strong support for deep SE snow on 1/27 with the 0C 850 line all the way down to the FL/GA border and nice amount of QPF of 0.25-0.50" which could support a wide area of several inches quite far south.
What I see when I go back over the last 10 GFs runs is there is a clear trend of heights building over AK however our heights over Greenland have been back and forth. No clear trend there at all imo. This thing is far from over but it’s nice to see a storm showing up on most global models tonight. It’s probably better that I run a trend loop with the GEFS
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS looks very very improved overall for that system. I'm trying to hold back my excitement but I've been smiling (and chatting on discord).
Map:
Map:
00z fv3 has a storm for next weekend but it’s out to sea ... but then it has a quick hitter after that and then a major CAD winter storm and I think the 32 degree line is to the Florida coast .... ?
That accumulating snow on the mean is less than 50 miles from @pcbjr to both his Ne and his NW! Wow!
I see a -NAO on 1/27 on the 0Z GEFS that only gets stronger through the run. Look for a drop in the NCEP NAO tomorrow!
JLL1973
Member
Fv3 is consistent in giving the midsouth a good thump of snow for the midweek system. Unfortunately it is on an island all by itself
Apologies. Trend loop malfunction ??
Sometimes I really hate TT but it’s all I’ve gotApologies. Trend loop malfunction ??
No problem. Greenland 500 mb heights well above normal 1/29 to the end of the 0Z GEFS run.
https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/00Z-20190120_GEFSSE_prec_ptypens-6-330-10-100.gif
This should be a link to the gefs members so far ... some of these runs are absolutely absurd with the amount of winter precip and how widspread it is
This should be a link to the gefs members so far ... some of these runs are absolutely absurd with the amount of winter precip and how widspread it is
Again cash in please!!!
You can really see that -NAO doing a number late in the run. Lows running the coast and circling back into Canada. Fun to look at. It’s been a while
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Love that 1/27-1/29 period. Would set up for a nice 2-3 inch snow here. Still think the system will trend more moist with time.
Greatest GEFS snowfall mean ever!!!
0Zgefs complete run..
0Zgefs complete run..
Also for those worried about precip totals at this juncture: don’t. There has been one constant so far this winter and that is that these things trend wetter. We need a south trend over the coming days, assuming we keep this general look going forward.
Another threat from fv3 at little before day 10. Nice setup for most on here. 
Stormlover
Member
0Z ICON edit 0Z FV3
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0z FV3 is crazy cold for the Deep South to end the month.
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Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Lol at cold after this storm.
Told you guys this had potential. Still just potential but it's inching close to being a legitimate threat with the increasing ensemble support. 00Z GEFS was a nice little nod with plenty of room for more.
Is there even possible snow in the single digits and teens. In the south??? ???? hour 252
Euro ?
Running at the moment and it is At hour 162. We will know in a few.
Looks like a week LP in Arkansas by hour 168, 850 are supportive of snow in the majority of the southeast but I can’t see sfc temps on tidbits
She’s trying to do something. 
180 and 186... very close.
deff A CAD sig on the euro
Looks plenty cold to the north also. Hour 156 temps
180 
so much boom potential. Right where we want it for the time being. I think even @Rain Cold would approve after a few more south tics
Stormlover
Member
gefs very consistent..again a 5 plus inch mean for me, and all 20 members showing at least an inch 
Wouldn’t pay much attention to the accumulation maps. It was close to being a whole lot better. IMO. 
What website do you use to download this???
Won’t be long before a model run shows a really good run for us Carolina folks for that storm, will probably show a sfc Low develop/transfer towards the sc/ga coast and move up the coast and deepen, its going to happen on a model run, mark my words
Very close. I think if I am reading this right.
