Pattern Jammin' January

[LovingGulfLows]

Euro op also showing 2-3 inches over the same period as the OP GFS across the Atlanta metro. Still think there will be more moisture once the SW flow from the gulf is tapped. Great look though and only a little over a week away.

 

[TheBatman]

What’s you thoughts @deltadog03 ???

 

[deltadog03]

Very close. I think if I am reading this right. View attachment 12025

That is very close for sure. Temps will likely be a bit colder as well. It has potential

 

[Myfrotho704_]

temps don’t even look like much of problem atm, I know I’ve said this before but @deltadog03 would you agree that this has a similar look to the storm that happened last year around this time ?

 

[TheBatman]

That is very close for sure. Temps will likely be a bit colder as well. It has potential

Oh yea, here are the temp as we stand at the moment.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Euro shows it snowing at 27-28 degrees here. High ratio powdery-like snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m locked in the upper teens during the day the storm is around on this run, shows little moisture for me but I’m not worried

 

[TheBatman]

Here comes another threat towards the end of the run.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I’m locked in the upper teens during the day the storm is around on this run, shows little moisture for me but I’m not worried

At those temps, even .15 QPF can convert to around 3 inches of powder.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

temps don’t even look like much of problem atm, I know I’ve said this before but delta would you agree that this has a similar look to the storm that happened last year around this time ?

Temps are always always always a problem. They are indeed looking good at the moment but they will become much more questionable if/when this thing decides to bomb out in future runs. Right now it’s a very weak wave, and may stay that way, but that’s why temps are so cold on this run

 

[TheBatman]

And that’s a heck of a front.

 

[TheBatman]

This may belong in banter, but I just got to know did Euro show snow in Columbia SC?

Nothing at the moment. The system fail apart before reaching over there. But no worries, this will change 100 times before the storm hits.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

wish we can have a bomb just off the coast of sc/Nc with no WAA, all snow, seems impossible nowadays

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Webber is looking like he was correct that we would be seeing a lot of ana-frontal/arctic boundary wave type solutions on the models.

 

[TheBatman]

I would say there is a decent chance we get a over running setup in this pattern also. Shallow artic air vs warm moisture from the gulf.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Totally different setup with this one.

??

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 12031
??

If you take a look. That would push on through the next few frames. Unless it did stall out. Creating a massive snow/ice storm for some.

 

[TheBatman]

If you take a look. That would push on through the next few frames. Unless it did stall out. Creating a massive snow/ice storm for some.

Here is a imagine of what I am talking about. ??

See how it plowing on threw?????

 

[TripleJ185]

Damn.... such a good setup for a lot of y'all!!! Can't beat it!!!!

 

[GaWx]

The cold biased FV3 (0Z) has a major 36 hour long mainly icestorm with temps believe it or not as low as the lower to mid 20s but with some sleet at times here from sunrise 1/31 through sunset 2/1. It has the worst icestorm here in nearly 100 years and we just had a moderate icestorm a year ago as part of that winter storm. Besides it being a cold biased model, that would be 11-12 days out. The details aren't important that far out on a cold biased operational model. However, I keep seeing various models that are not necessarily cold biased with either hits or very close misses for here of some kind of wintry wx (mostly light) for the last few days of Jan into early Feb. It is sort of reminding me of that once in a generation major winter storm of a year ago that hit here after many days of model hints of such a thing. So, the period really has my attention now, especially knowing the AO and maybe now even the NAO look to really crash just before then. The MJO looks to likely be in a favorable position for SE cold then. It being a weak El Nino also favors cold in general. I think even @pcbjr should start watching that period for the chance at a very rare far very deep SE wintry event. The key for him and me to a lesser extent would be a weak low crossing south FL. A low crossing central FL or even a slow moving one that forms well offshore the SE coast can sometimes do the trick here though a S FL crossing is preferred.

 

[Rain Cold]

@Rain Cold Lakes low? No problemView attachment 11999

Not this time.

 

[accu35]

6z gfs didn't have the storm for next weekend or it tried, but I'm not worried it will be back on 12z. Oh, mid week system still looks little better this morning

 

[TheBatman]

Wow!!! Fv3 has a second hit 2 days later from our 1st storm. Just wow!!!

 

[TheBatman]

Completed 6z gefs. Still looking sexy!!

 

[packfan98]

Another flush hit on the fv3 on the 31st!

 

[Clem282340]

Another flush hit on the fv3 on the 31st!
View attachment 12043

How about the frame before that one

 

[packfan98]

How about the frame before that one

The Pivotal Weather website is free and is probably the most user friendly for folks to use and learn. Check it out:
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model...pe_cat&rh=2019012006&fh=264&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

[packfan98]

I don't recall ever seeing the 2" snow line this far south on the mean. There are a couple of members skewing the mean, but I believe we can agree that the potential is there for a special 16 day period.

 

[Stormdoc]

Wow 6Z FV-3 with close to a February ‘73 outcome for many.

 

[Jon]

There’s the low strength I wanted over the gulf on the FV3. FV3 has 1006mb and I said 1005mb instead of the weak 1014mb low. Boom!

And the energy digs in a perfect location

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[Mitch West]

This is starting to get exciting, I have to admit. It’s sorta still all over the place with what it’s going to do in the next 10 days, but dang the potential is incredible.

 

[Fountainguy97]

There is a dedicated thread for the 26-28th storm

 

[Kylo]

Interesting to see the EPS cave to the GEFS with a -PNA pattern in the extended. But, with HLB still gives us a chance and seems very active.

 

[cyclogent]

Several of GEFS members and some of the ops hinting at a period of sleet/freezing rain Wednesday morning in the favored CAD areas. The HP slides offshore so maybe some in-situ potential for you guys? Latest NAM picking up on this as well.

 

[Brick Tamland]

There’s the low strength I wanted over the gulf on the FV3. FV3 has 1006mb and I said 1005mb instead of the weak 1014mb low. Boom!

And the energy digs in a perfect location

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Finally a great looking ops map to go along with the ever improving ensembles! The end of the month looks legit. Let's hope this doesn't start backing down now, especially the ensembles. Awesome to seem them continue to increase totals.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Knew there was gonna be a model run like that (FV) it was bound to happen

 

[tennessee storm]

There’s the low strength I wanted over the gulf on the FV3. FV3 has 1006mb and I said 1005mb instead of the weak 1014mb low. Boom!

And the energy digs in a perfect location

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

can I cash out now please? 14 inches?...

 

[NWMSGuy]

Any thoughts on the mid week system for the Mid-South? FV3 isn’t backing off.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS not looking good. That ridge starts to build back in around 270 (gets stronger through the end of the run) and both the GFS and FV3 looked eerily similar. Need to score this coming weekend

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Weather from times of old.... they had no computer models.. yes.. some of this stuff you hear is nutty... but I know and have observed this to be true.. tons of black birds on the ground... thunder then 10 days later.... extreme cold, snow, ice , or any of the mentioned... I have legitimacy on this... passed down by my family.. my great great grandfather was the sheriff of Cherokee county North Carolina... he married a Cherokee Indian... they only knew things of weather by observing nature.