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Pattern Jammin' January

The model consensus, including the 18Z GEFS and 12Z EPS, are suggesting a more zonal flow for early Feb. Is this likely to be correct? Temps are near normal on model consensus for early Feb now, a far cry from what the weeklies had on Thu. . If so, will the cold likely reload?

I'm not taking a stand one way or the other but am instead trying to generate discussion on the fact of the obvious zonal look. IF this were to occur and the cold not return, there would be a lot of upset folks here. If this were to occur, I do think it would get cold again for a good part of Feb. But admittedly, this is not what I wanted to see so soon.
 
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GaWx said:
The model consensus, including the 18Z GEFS and 12Z EPS, are suggesting a more zonal flow for early Feb. Is this likely to be correct? Temps are near normal on model consensus for early Feb now, a far cry from what the weeklies had on Thu. . If so, will the cold likely reload?

I'm not taking a stand one way or the other but am instead trying to generate discussion on the fact of the obvious zonal look.
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Discussion:

Pioneer was blasted cold through March; this is a one and done lower SE shot year, IMHO ...
 
pcbjr said:
Discussion:

Pioneer was blasted cold through March; this is a one and done lower SE shot year, IMHO ...
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Of course, though I don't think so based on indices/climo, it could be a one and done period of cold domination the next 11 or so days. Any other opinions? Could Feb end up a dud after all of the hype?
 
GaWx said:
Of course, though I don't think so based on indices/climo, it could be a one and done period of cold domination the next 11 or so days. Any other opinions? Could Feb end up a dud after all of the hype?
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Yes.
History.
 
GaWx said:
Of course, though I don't think so based on indices/climo, it could be a one and done period of cold domination the next 11 or so days. Any other opinions? Could Feb end up a dud after all of the hype?
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I dont live and die by the nao. Always about the pna and pac to me. Anyway HM tweeted a good point to consider. We really never got a wound up system this week(mid week one is last hope and not looking likely) to drive up into north Atlantic and help solidify the nao tanking. As it stands well get it a neg nao,but nothing like what we could have expierenced had what i mentioned happened.
HM is hard to discern, so maybe webb or jon can correct me if this is not what hes saying. He has the rep of knowing his stuff, so his opinions are always of great value.
 
NCSNOW said:
I dont live and die by the nao. Always about the pna and pac to me. Anyway HM tweeted a good point to consider. We really never got a wound up system this week(mid week one is last hope and not looking likely) to drive up into north Atlantic and help solidify the nao tanking. As it stands well get it a neg nao,but nothing like what we could have expierenced had what i mentioned happened.
HM is hard to discern, so maybe webb or jon can correct me if this is not what hes saying. He has the rep of knowing his stuff, so his opinions are always of great value.
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But here’s the problem: the models have the +PNA going away and even possibly a +RNA replacing it. Are they likely to be right and, if so, would the +PNA return soon after?
 
GaWx said:
But here’s the problem: the models have the +PNA going away and even possibly a +RNA replacing it. Are they likely to be right and, if so, would the +PNA return soon after?
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Your more up to speed on el nino conditions than me. But isnt it strengthening? If so ,thats a percusor to +pna 90%+ of time. Pna could go neg for a few days and just be a hiccup before correcting back pos. We can still score with neg pna but its tougher than it is when its just a neg nao missing scenerio.
 
namconus_asnow_seus_29.png
0z Nam
 
NCSNOW said:
Your more up to speed on el nino conditions than me. But isnt it strengthening? If so ,thats a percusor to +pna 90%+ of time. Pna could go neg for a few days and just be a hiccup before correcting back pos. We can still score with neg pna but its tougher than it is when its just a neg nao missing scenerio.
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It isn't strengthening but, regardless, the El Nino favors a +PNA to dominate as you said. That's why I agree it would return pretty quickly.
 
GaWx said:
It isn't strengthening but, regardless, the El Nino favors a +PNA to dominate as you said. That's why I agree it would return pretty quickly.
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Oh Bob Chill has thrown towel in tonight. Or better yet thrown his hands up. Seeing what alot of folks have past few model cycles. Anyway im just focusing on next threat. Im pattern chased out at 2/3 met winter mark. Its not hard to predict sensible wx if we know the pattern LR. But its still hard to predict LR pattern. The Mjo thwarted the Dec 26-Jan9 part of winter. Be interesting to see how its behavior affects the Feb2-10 time frame.
 
NCSNOW said:
Oh Bob Chill has thrown towel in tonight. Or better yet thrown his hands up. Seeing what alot of folks have past few model cycles. Anyway im just focusing on next threat. Im pattern chased out at 2/3 met winter mark. Its not hard to predict sensible wx if we know the pattern LR. But its still hard to predict LR pattern. The Mjo thwarted the Dec 26-Jan9 part of winter. Be interesting to see how its behavior affects the Feb2-10 time frame.
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I think Bob should have stayed the course as I'm thinking these model trends suggesting a zonal flow will either be wrong or the zonal flow would be very shortlived. There's too many factors supporting this.
 
That midweek event definitely can't be slept on now. Might not be a whole lot but those folks that get that band in the western part of the SE might get a nice little event.
 
NCSNOW said:
Oh Bob Chill has thrown towel in tonight. Or better yet thrown his hands up. Seeing what alot of folks have past few model cycles. Anyway im just focusing on next threat. Im pattern chased out at 2/3 met winter mark. Its not hard to predict sensible wx if we know the pattern LR. But its still hard to predict LR pattern. The Mjo thwarted the Dec 26-Jan9 part of winter. Be interesting to see how its behavior affects the Feb2-10 time frame.
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I haven’t read what we wrote. But we have been in MJO hell for weeks now with a brief respite though 7-8. Now all global ensembles are modeling a -PNA. Looking at first week of Feb with a -PNA and big SER. I am bummed, that’s for sure.

Still hard to believe we are sitting here where we are with what appeared to be a very promising winter.
 
Kylo said:
I haven’t read what we wrote. But we have been in MJO hell for weeks now with a brief respite though 7-8. Now all global ensembles are modeling a -PNA. Looking at first week of Feb with a -PNA and big SER. I am bummed, that’s for sure.

Still hard to believe we are sitting here where we are with what appeared to be a very promising winter.
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I don't think it is going to be as bad as those models were showing and it may not be bad at all when all is said and done..
 
Good news about the 0Z GEFS. It is the least zonal of the last few runs for early Feb and may indicate a reversal of the zonal trend has commenced. Let's see tomorrow.
 
GaWx said:
Good news about the 0Z GEFS. It is the least zonal of the last few runs for early Feb and may indicate a reversal of the zonal trend has commenced. Let's see tomorrow.
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Usually in these cold patterns we will have a brief 2-3 day warmup as the cold “reloads” and then returns again. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what models are hinting at happening before the turn colder again.
 
You guys are going to love the completed EPS run. Probably one of the best ever also. Very similar to the GEFS. I will post in a few.
 
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