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Pattern Jammin January 2023

NickyBGuarantee said:
That first and second storm shouldn’t be what we look for when we want a storm in the SE. those could be theoretically our table setters as after that second storm we get a good injection of cold air then. Then we look for energy that rounds the base of the trough or maybe some upper level energy to give us a chance at some snow or winter precip/ overrunning potential
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We've already got so many dishes on the table I'm not sure there's room for dinner at this point.
 
iGRXY said:
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Okay this is extremely interesting looking. This is about as perfect of a western ridge as you're going to get.
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Pretty flat but the cold is a ✅
 
tennessee storm said:
Get true artic air. She will go dry as a bone. That’s way it works
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Really all we need is a good 35° Sfc temp and cold air aloft. Here in my neck of woods in upstate. Our biggest snows have never had the coldest of Air. I've seen very heavy snow here at 35-36°

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If the Canadian Ensemble is to be believed + overall trends we’re seeing on NWP lately, next week’s -NAO stands a good chance to couple with the stratosphere and persist for a rather long time, possibly thru early to even mid March (?).

Even if we don’t snow, that kind of circulation change would have a realistic chance to put a damper on us torching in Feb (like we normally do in La Ninas) or at least make that period of time much shorter overall.

I really hope my call for a warm first half-2/3rds of February this year busts, that would be awesome ?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Main takeaway right now is that we will have about a 4-7 day window from 1/27- 2/2 with the players on the field. After that the SE ridge probably wins out
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Im looking at the GFS and it ends very warm with rain well into Canada. If this is just another 3 day cold then righr back to 10-20 above normal then the pattern still hasnt changed.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I agree. Hopefully the people saying the pattern is actually going to change will be right. I just dont see it on the GFS.
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Thats the problem. Your looking at GFS. When you get the EPs and GEPS singing same tune, Its no aurgument who's right and whos wrong. Now the GEFS, would warrant caution. New Op GFS is garbage LR, beneath the old DGEX
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the Canadian Ensemble is to be believed + overall trends we’re seeing on NWP lately, next week’s -NAO stands a good chance to couple with the stratosphere and persist for a rather long time, possibly thru early to even mid March (?).

Even if we don’t snow, that kind of circulation change would have a realistic chance to put a damper on us torching in Feb (like we normally do in La Ninas) or at least make that period of time much shorter overall.

I really hope my call for a warm first half-2/3rds of February this year busts, that would be awesome ?
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So, the GEPS has essentially the entire CONUS much below normal pretty much from day 5 to infinity. Do ensemble suites factor in 10Mb forecast conditions and the forecast effect of an SSWE in time?

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