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Pattern Jammin January 2023

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Rain Cold said:
Looks good. Then immediately following, the pac jet from around the world comes back. I thought it was supposed to retract?

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Had a decent shot there on the GFS but of course it drops the energy into the SW. I think we have an active southern jet with energy dropping out of Canada so multiple chances with a very deep love of cold air. Who knows though
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks good. Then immediately following, the pac jet from around the world comes back. I thought it was supposed to retract?

View attachment 130607
Click to expand...
Yesterday's 12z op Euro hinted at atleaat a temporary extending of the jet and moving the ridge axis east. At minimum we get an assist in cold delivery
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Check out the bowling ball approaching Baja near hr 230. Looks like its trying to phase it with it with the energy near 4 corners. If those stay separate and we can keep the cold confluence in the east maybe they can ride the sub-tropical jet?
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Personally I'd like to keep them separate with the 4 corners vorticity less sheared and take my chances at overrunning the cold sfc dome. I'd worry an early phase would hook into an ugly miller b but for you guys deep in the cad regions that might not be as big of a concern
 
Few ways to score here, as of right now a deep shot of extended cold air looks to have legs right now. That is always first and foremost the most important thing in the south before even looking at potential winter storms. Now we either need some energy off of the southern jet to eject and push east (always the best candidate), or we need it to dive south out of Canada to either phase or dig correctly and also not get dumped further into the southwest. That has a lot more ways of screwing up. You're on a carefully tilted scale between sheared out nothing, energy that dumps out west that doesn't get kicked out until too late after the deep cold air is gone, and a winter storm.
 
SD said:
Personally I'd like to keep them separate with the 4 corners vorticity less sheared and take my chances at overrunning the cold sfc dome. I'd worry an early phase would hook into an ugly miller b but for you guys deep in the cad regions that might not be as big of a concern
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This is honestly the biggest winning hand, this is how we can at least get some snow even if it eventually switches over to ice from WAA. Miller B's are great in my neck of the woods, but then it becomes a fight to get perfectly tracked LP that doesn't come too far inland and transitions to the coast in a good spot to keep the sleet and ZR further south. Then you also have to start fighting 850 meso lows, etc that can get the smallest of warm noses in the area here. But more likely than not, that would be the end result here.
 
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