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Tropical Ida Inland impacts

Most of all Alabama is under a pretty favorable environment for tornadic storms. I wish the NAM would be over our area but it's got it's head all the way in Texas during the time frame. But gfs has actually had a uptick in instability in a very favorable windfield. Again. I think the ceiling for Alabama is a moderate. Once close range models get into range I'll tweak that some maybe, depending on how it looks. I'm impressed by this setup.

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Imagine if it moved a tick faster this would be Zeta all over again with wind damage into NC. Doesn’t look like that now just some rain and tornado threat in the west (Fred like).
 
The east trends are obvious the NHC now has Atlanta Georgia to Wilkes co NC in the cone gonna post that here so he doesn’t accuse us of wishcasting east
 
Per GSP/Blacksburg, both say non-event with all the action limited to the left side of IDA. Only a 6 hour window of increased moisture later on in the week. Yay!
 
Really starting to see good consensus now little impact east TN into the Carolinas
 
06z guidance on tornado potential is kind've alarming. I'm going to wait until 12z model runs come out to post anything. Screenshot_20210828-081031-205.pngScreenshot_20210828-081121-553.pngScreenshot_20210828-081157-109.png

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@Arcc surprised you haven't said anything on the tornado potential, looks pretty formidable in our neck of the woods.

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Poking around and looking at the CAMS on landfall and the short term for about a 100 miles inland. This thing creates a volatile area for tornado strength just southeast of the actual buzzsaw precipitation. It has actual supercellular storms revolving around it. Hmm. Very good influx of instability on the southeastern quadrant immediately near the center.

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Upwards of 3000 j of instability are being forecast in the immediate southeast quadrant. Wind shear will be probably too much for anything sustained. But quick lived strong tornadoes can't be ruled out. There's enough upward motion and instability that makes me wonder wether this area will need a hatched area. Not in range for the LR HRRR quite yet. Screenshot_20210828-153600-503.pngScreenshot_20210828-153651.pngScreenshot_20210828-153702.pngScreenshot_20210828-153715.png
 
The LR HRRR lessens the ingredients but I don't know how much the LR is good at. Anyway appears there's a good chance for spinups like usual lol

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Interesting note by spc. For the day of landfall. Comparing the tornado threat to Katrina and other memorable hurricanes for tornado potential
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Something to note...IF Ida continues on the current eastern edge of the Ensemble guidance and turns northeast when meeting with that front you can take the projected heaviest rain totals and shift that east/southeast probably 50-75 miles if I had to guess.
 
We are safe in Georgia… :rolleyes: not that I agree completely with his post!8773D041-BECD-4328-9C79-4527D9DD6B8B.png
 
SD said:
I think the euro is too low with precip here. There...I said it
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lol feels like a comment I’d see in a mid winter storm thread.

“12z Euro took my snow away. I prefer the WRF-ARW/JMA blend anyway.”
 
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Nws of bham in there recent discussion have noted a increase in area and threats may be needed in the near future for central alabama
 
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