farleydawg792
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Tropical Hurricane Sally
- Thread starter Henry2326
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
Rainfall is going to be adding up fast. Yikes...
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
Southeastern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
Escambia County in northwestern Florida...
Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...
Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
* Until 645 AM CDT Wednesday.
* At 11 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 16 inches of rain have
fallen close to the coast over portions of southern Baldwin County
Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle. Flash flooding is
already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Tropical rainbands
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Doppler radar.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Downtown Mobile, Midtown Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Ferry Pass,
Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Ensley, Daphne,
Tillmans Corner, Warrington, Crestview, Fairhope, Saraland,
Niceville, Gonzalez, Destin and Eglin AFB.
This is ALREADY progressing into a serious situation, with locally
30" of rain during the next 24 hours and within this warned area.
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
Southeastern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
Escambia County in northwestern Florida...
Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...
Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
* Until 645 AM CDT Wednesday.
* At 11 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 16 inches of rain have
fallen close to the coast over portions of southern Baldwin County
Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle. Flash flooding is
already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Tropical rainbands
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Doppler radar.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Downtown Mobile, Midtown Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Ferry Pass,
Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Ensley, Daphne,
Tillmans Corner, Warrington, Crestview, Fairhope, Saraland,
Niceville, Gonzalez, Destin and Eglin AFB.
This is ALREADY progressing into a serious situation, with locally
30" of rain during the next 24 hours and within this warned area.
farleydawg792
Member
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Very possible.
farleydawg792
Member
Brent
Member
Earlier I would have said no but I wouldn't rule it out now it's really made a comeback from last night and this morning no doubt
102 kt FL definitely could see 100 mph next update
Tornadocane
Member
Sally has a chance at Category 3. The upper level environment has created a perfect environment for a tropical system in less than optimal, cooler waters that results from upwelling to produce convection from jet stream perturbations without shearing the system. Sally completely merged with a PV riding along the the subtropical jet early this afternoon, and her nicely oriented connection with the subtropical jet has provided great upper level forcing that's helping overcome the upwelled water to produce intense convection. The conditions illustrated on the 18z GFS 200-400Mb streamline map shows the perfect positioning of Sally in the right front quadrant of the jet stream, as well as tucked within a shortening, neutral to negatively tilted half wavelength located between the base of this trough and a shortwave ridge that is helping produce upper level divergence. This setup looks barotropic and is currently causing rapid intensification. These conditions will only last for 24.
tropicaltidbits.com
GFS Model
GFS model forecast of 200-400mb Q-Div, Streamfunc., 850mb Vort, 200mb Irr. Wind for CONUS
tropicaltidbits.com
farleydawg792
Member
DOWN TO 970MB ON RECON AND TIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE HWRF AS FAR A PRESSURE
Tornadocane
Member
Yep. I thought it would only make it to minimal category 1 last night. Now it looks like we might be retiring this one.
Tornadocane
Member
Maybe 1-2 hours before the northern core reaches Gulf Shore. Maybe sooner. Get ready.
I WOULD SAY YOU STILL HAVE 2-3 HRS IF NOT A MORE BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL
BufordWX
Member
Sustained winds up to 100 mph per the midnight update...
farleydawg792
Member
Brent
Member
Interesting they mentioned a possible special advisory
Tornadocane
Member
Yeah they're actually turning the plane back for a fifth pass over the COC out of the NE.
farleydawg792
Member
Live from Gulf Shores
Brent
Member
965.3 extrap
been a few mb higher than that on the reports but its still dropping
been a few mb higher than that on the reports but its still dropping
BufordWX
Member
Dropsnode just got a 112 kt reading at the surface. Probably just a gust, but Sally is definitely strengthening.
Brent
Member
Yeah it's a gust but still impressive
STILL 14 MI OFF SHORE
farleydawg792
Member
Yes, and landfall does not technically count until the eye is halfway on land. at the current rate, they have 4 or more hours more of that eye wall. This is the main problem.
Tornadocane
Member
This just WOW!!!!!!!!! I'm nominating Sally for Storm of the Year!
Brent
Member
I dunno Laura still wins to me ?
YES. THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING WILL BE HISTORIC DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT
Brent
Member
...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT
SHORTLY...
Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).
Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.
SHORTLY...
Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).
Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.
DOWN TO 968 MB PER NHC
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Update:
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Things look to be deteriorating rather quickly now
ON IR SAT LOOKS TO HAVE TAKEN A BIG JUMP WEST
BufordWX
Member
Flash flood emergency for southeastern Baldwin county in Alabama and south central Escambia county Florida. Rain quickly becoming a problem there.
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION AS INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES FROM SALLY'S EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ASHORE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO TWENTY
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN. THIS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLED
GIVEN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HAS FALLEN AND GIVEN SALLY'S
VERY SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION AS INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES FROM SALLY'S EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ASHORE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO TWENTY
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN. THIS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLED
GIVEN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HAS FALLEN AND GIVEN SALLY'S
VERY SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...