• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Sally

Henry2326 said:
View attachment 48603
Click to expand...
Levi said in his video upwelled shouldn't be a problem tomorrow night, but if the storm is off shore Wednesday than yes it could. One thing I dont get, all the models show a fast strengthening before LF but they dont mention that in the discussion. They only thing they mention in strengthening is a short term through tomorrow morning.
 
Brent said:
I would expect some strengthening for sure but again what's interesting is the recon obs lately barely even support a cane so it's got some catching up to do

I'm not sure the slow motion is really conducive to crazy strengthening
Click to expand...

Yeah I could see low end Cat 3 at the most but I don't think it gets to Cat 4/5 unless it really starts moving, what helped Michael and Laura was their fast movements.
 
One thing for sure gfs isn't turning it sharp right even after LF
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png
 
Honestly Sally prolly has more tricks up her sleeves. Expect surprises ahead
 
So far on the 0z runs, Gfs/Nam3km/RGEM Mobile and little west LF and Nam 12km and icon little east of Mobile. Havent check the CMC or Euro yet. My bet is Mobile or little east
 
As I been saying all day models really strengthen before LF. HWRF shows it also.
hmon_mslp_wind_19L_11.png
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
YUP IM 25MI SOUTH OF BHAM AND IT LOOKS DECENTLY WET FOR ME:eek::eek:
Click to expand...
Prolly why most of the 0z suits tonight has LF Mobile or little west because of the lack of a sharp turn at landfall. Who knows lol
 
Very weak VDM

URNT12 KNHC 150530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 15/05:09:30Z
B. 28.79 deg N 087.96 deg W
C. 700 mb 2994 m
D. 987 mb
E. 075 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C18
H. 42 kt
I. 236 deg 19 nm 05:03:30Z
J. 338 deg 46 kt
K. 238 deg 16 nm 05:04:30Z
L. 55 kt
M. 047 deg 35 nm 05:20:00Z
N. 144 deg 61 kt
O. 046 deg 33 nm 05:19:30Z
P. 14 C / 3045 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
U. AF308 1019A SALLY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 046 / 33 NM 05:19:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 239 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 
Sally starting to deepen again. Her real strengthening doesn't happen until the storm get closer ashore
 
accu35 said:
Sally starting to deepen again. Her real strengthening doesn't happen until the storm get closer ashore
Click to expand...
YUP AND WITH THE CONSISTENT HOT TOWERS FORMING TO THE NW SHE MAY VERY WELL TAKE OFF IN THE COMING HOURS
 
WELL THIS REALLY AMPED UP FROM A FEW HRS AGO. THE STEERING IF IM SEEING THIS RIGHT SALLY HAS NO WHERE TO GO BUT NORTH THEN EAST, BUT THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THE RIDGE ERODES OR MOVES TO THE EAST.. AND THIS IS PROB THE WRONG PLACE BUT I SEE TEDDY MOVING WAY WAY WEST WITH THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THERE AS WELL

Capture.JPG
 
MAYBE TRYING TO MOVE THE LLC BASED ON CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES. LOTS OF ON CONVECTION FIRING OFF TO THE WEST SIDE
 
MichaelJ said:
Looks to me still that a 980mb pressure and 80-85mph winds are likely at landfall. The shear in the upper levels will keep any intensification to a minimum now
Click to expand...
Yeah you can see some shear impinging on the W/SW side of system plus I know NHC says it's moving 2 mph, which really isn't moving lol, but I'm not sure it hasn't completely stalled. Anyway I'd lean towards the Euro right now, stalling, crawling weaker system but with massive qpf
 
My parents in gulf shores said the wind is shaking there beach house. And waves are "roaring"
 
So they’ve got her at 85mph. She was up to 105mph. If she doesn’t get her butt in gear moving faster than 2mph, she will continue to lose wind speed. That won’t negate the fact of surge though. We all remember Katrina was a Cat 3, but pushed a Cat 5 surge. Sandy did the same thing to the SE side of Staten Island along Father Cappodano Drive as well as Rockaway Beach and Breezy Point in Queens. Matter of fact, Breezy Point, Queens, was where they had the fire storm break out and burn down an entire city block of single family homes. Interesting side note: the homes were mainly occupied by FDNY and NYPD employees. Single family homes for those guys that wanted to get out of the city and be close to work. If anyone wants to see the damage from Sandy, let me know. I have hundreds of photos I took when I was TDY with a USAR team with FEMA.
 
One thing I noticed is the dry air isn't really effecting the storm like it was last night, so the moisture field is much better this morning. Not saying it will strengthen at the last minute but is it possible for one last strengthening??
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top