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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Levi said in his video upwelled shouldn't be a problem tomorrow night, but if the storm is off shore Wednesday than yes it could. One thing I dont get, all the models show a fast strengthening before LF but they dont mention that in the discussion. They only thing they mention in strengthening is a short term through tomorrow morning.
 
I would expect some strengthening for sure but again what's interesting is the recon obs lately barely even support a cane so it's got some catching up to do

I'm not sure the slow motion is really conducive to crazy strengthening

Yeah I could see low end Cat 3 at the most but I don't think it gets to Cat 4/5 unless it really starts moving, what helped Michael and Laura was their fast movements.
 
One thing for sure gfs isn't turning it sharp right even after LF
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png
 
Honestly Sally prolly has more tricks up her sleeves. Expect surprises ahead
 
So far on the 0z runs, Gfs/Nam3km/RGEM Mobile and little west LF and Nam 12km and icon little east of Mobile. Havent check the CMC or Euro yet. My bet is Mobile or little east
 
As I been saying all day models really strengthen before LF. HWRF shows it also.
hmon_mslp_wind_19L_11.png
 
YUP IM 25MI SOUTH OF BHAM AND IT LOOKS DECENTLY WET FOR ME:eek::eek:
Prolly why most of the 0z suits tonight has LF Mobile or little west because of the lack of a sharp turn at landfall. Who knows lol
 
Very weak VDM

URNT12 KNHC 150530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 15/05:09:30Z
B. 28.79 deg N 087.96 deg W
C. 700 mb 2994 m
D. 987 mb
E. 075 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C18
H. 42 kt
I. 236 deg 19 nm 05:03:30Z
J. 338 deg 46 kt
K. 238 deg 16 nm 05:04:30Z
L. 55 kt
M. 047 deg 35 nm 05:20:00Z
N. 144 deg 61 kt
O. 046 deg 33 nm 05:19:30Z
P. 14 C / 3045 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
U. AF308 1019A SALLY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 046 / 33 NM 05:19:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 239 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 
Sally starting to deepen again. Her real strengthening doesn't happen until the storm get closer ashore
 
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