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Tropical Hurricane Sally

PEA_RIDGE

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Yes, and landfall does not technically count until the eye is halfway on land. at the current rate, they have 4 or more hours more of that eye wall. This is the main problem.
YES. THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING WILL BE HISTORIC DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT
 

Brent

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...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT
SHORTLY...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.
 

BufordWX

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Flash flood emergency for southeastern Baldwin county in Alabama and south central Escambia county Florida. Rain quickly becoming a problem there.

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION AS INTENSE

RAINFALL RATES FROM SALLY'S EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ASHORE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO TWENTY
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN. THIS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLED
GIVEN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HAS FALLEN AND GIVEN SALLY'S

VERY SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS... 5D98D3E1-9A58-4787-9975-87A8358503FC.png
 

Tornadocane

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I dunno Laura still wins to me 🤣
Much respect to Laura, but this storm, by some meteorological phenomenon, is now flirting with Major status despite NHC and others forecasting it to weaken. This is catching a lot of people in dense towns and suburbs off-guard cause of the intense rainfall, and these stronger winds are going to knock down trees that have been loosened from the 15-20 inches of rain that has already fallen. People saw Laura coming. The people in the sparsely populated areas of Western LA were very aware of the storm-prone area and evacuated. Who in MI and FL living 3-15 miles inland left their houses for a forecast of 10-25 inches of rain? Nobody. And those totals are likely gonna be doubled. We'll see what else is in store tonight, but I'm legitimately afraid that people are going to be trapped in their house or on their roofs.

118 MPH flight level winds.
 

Tornadocane

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Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Justification for this special advisory is to increase the
initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile
Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued
to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has
become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall
have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft
ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt.
The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a
standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind
speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the
northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the
lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind.
However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind
gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 90 kt.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall
occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur
after the center moves inland, and the system should become a
remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the
latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is
north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the
previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move
north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with
a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will
then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the
westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward
the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed
until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S.
coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest
corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.
 

SimeonNC

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TWC is talking three feet of rain possible for the areas being impacted rn. Apparently already 20 inches have fallen in some spots.
 

Tornadocane

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doppler Radar already estimating 28 inches of rain near <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pensacola?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Pensacola</a>!!! Strongest Northeast winds are about to arrive along with front right quadrant storm surge. Water everywhere and many likely didn’t evacuate because forecast changed so late. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneSally?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#HurricaneSally</a> <a href="https://t.co/MEsvvO7Vle">pic.twitter.com/MEsvvO7Vle</a></p>&mdash; Bill Karins (@BillKarins) <a href="">September 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Brent

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At approximately 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...the center of Hurricane
Sally's eye made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2
hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a
minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
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