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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Probably. Should start to see the hot towers wrap the COC. The westerly mid-level shear may keep things in check a little, but it may end up being nullified due to the move more North and then NE.
That explosion on the south side should do a lot for the southern end of the storm I'd think over the next several hours. Probably fill in that gap in the eye.
 
Probably. Should start to see the hot towers wrap the COC. The westerly mid-level shear may keep things in check a little, but it may end up being nullified due to the move more North and then NE.
Yeah it looks like it has about 18-24 hrs to put itself together again. It'll be interesting to see if the new convection near the center fully explodes like the convection did this morning or if we see some issues with a little dry air causing the updrafts to collapse.
 
Yeah it looks like it has about 18-24 hrs to put itself together again. It'll be interesting to see if the new convection near the center fully explodes like the convection did this morning or if we see some issues with a little dry air causing the updrafts to collapse.

What dry air?


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Certainly looks like it was a mix of some southerly shear creating some susceptibility within the circulation and it ate a little dry air which caused the CDO to become much more ragged versus earlier today
The 12z Euro initialized with some dry air at H3 close by
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Dauphin Island has already had significant flooding today; water under houses and cars stranded. I'm afraid at least the western half of that place is in serious trouble.
I just saw it on weather channel.....doesn't bode well for the next 24 hours there.....
 
Yeah it looks like it has about 18-24 hrs to put itself together again. It'll be interesting to see if the new convection near the center fully explodes like the convection did this morning or if we see some issues with a little dry air causing the updrafts to collapse.
I expect the next update or recon, the pressure will have came up a few millibars. It really doesn’t look good on satellite or radar presentation now, imo
 
Horrible track for mobile bay
Even the ICON with the pressure 27mb higher would be a disaster for Mobile Bay... either one of those would be 18-24 hours of at least tropical storm force with at least 6-8 hours of hurricane force winds from the south pushing water into the bay. That 2 full tidal cycles. With wind like that at that direction for so long the tide isn’t able to go out so the water has nowhere to go except for piling up on the coastline
 
Even the ICON with the pressure 27mb higher would be a disaster for Mobile Bay... either one of those would be 18-24 hours of at least tropical storm force with at least 6-8 hours of hurricane force winds from the south pushing water into the bay. That 2 full tidal cycles. With wind like that at that direction for so long the tide isn’t able to go out so the water has nowhere to go except for piling up on the coastline

Dennis in 1999 as a tropical storm parked off NC for a week put 11 feet of water in the pamlico. This will be worse for mobile bay. You summed up the threat perfectly.
 
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