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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Nate doesn't look that bad. Still some organization issues but not the steaming turd it was 24 hours ago

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GOES20472017279eUwOdA.jpg
coming together, also i was reading that Nate is slowing down some. Not good if so
 
ForsythSnow said:
Sustained. Glad Alabama already declared state of emergency because that would mean some nasty winds for the state. Georgia is going to get it too, as the center clips the corner of the state per latest track.
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Like I said earlier, I think this will be worse than Irma for AL and parts of GA. But it seems like the media is not really giving this as much attention as Irma. Stores are not jam packed like they were for Irma, despite the fact this may be worse for our area.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Sustained. Glad Alabama already declared state of emergency because that would mean some nasty winds for the state. Georgia is going to get it too, as the center clips the corner of the state per latest track.
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Me being in SW Bama it should get ugly here also
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Like I said earlier, I think this will be worse than Irma for AL and parts of GA. But it seems like the media is not really giving this as much attention as Irma. Stores are not jam packed like they were for Irma, despite the fact this may be worse for our area.
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Definitely could be, expecially if thus can ramp up to a cat 2-3. Then AL will be dealing with an inner core still intact like Opal.
 
Nate Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Birmingham AL AL162017
414 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

ALZ028-070515-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TR.A.1016.171006T2114Z-000000T0000Z/
Clay-
414 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means Tropical storm wind conditions are
possible somewhere within this area and within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Ashland

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Sunday morning until
Sunday afternoon

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
strong tropical storm force wind of 58 to 73 mph.
- To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of
significant wind impacts. Efforts should now be underway to
secure all properties.
- Dangerous wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter
may result in injury.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher
amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
minor flooding where peak rainfall totals are near amounts
conducive for localized flash flooding and rapid inundation.
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited flooding
rain impacts.
- Localized flooding is possible. If flood related watches
and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: None
- Emergency planning need not include a threat for tornadoes.
Showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds may still
occur.
- Little to no preparations needed to guard against tropical
tornadoes.
- Ensure readiness for the next tropical tornado event.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
 
At 36 landfall appears to the MS and strengthening as it moves in down to 985mb And slows just a bit as it nears the MS coast Little W of 12z run as well

48hr just S of Tuscaloosa

54hr little E of Huntsville
 
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Lynsy said:
That is a question that I have been wondering as well. Maybe some of those with better expertise can chime in on this.
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Without looking into the soundings a wild guess is they are expecting a large rain shield and the better tornado threat to be displaced east into Ga where the precip becomes more banded and you can generate some instability. Just a thought

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I love how the models transition nate from a lopsided to the east system to a left of track heavy rain event when it interacts with the trough. Flipping the proverbial bird to me

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BMX may need to adjust the greatest wind impacts further W jmho I think NHC may shift back little W with track also based off the last couple runs movement is more NNE vs hard NE turn...will just have to see what happens when they do the new graphics update little later this evening
 
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Xtreme Weather said:
BMX may need to adjust the greatest wind impacts further W jmho I think NHC may shift back little W with track also based off the last couple runs movement is more NNE vs hard NE turn...will just have to see what happens when they do the new graphics update little later this evening
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The 5pm update did shift west from the 11am update

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Storm5 said:
The 5pm update did shift west from the 11am update

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Ok gotcha well maybe another 20-30mi W if these models continue to show more of a westward component want to ride along the 20/59 corridor or just west of that it seems and not hooking hard right


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994 mb vdm looks like the 983 mb was bad data

Definitely no rapid intensification yet
 
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