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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Ethan80963 said:
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Looks like a significant amount of dry air just got mixed into its core, which cools the corresponding downdrafts and ultimately disturbs the warm core. The eyewall has opened back up to the south, probably won't see much intensification if/until it seals its eyewall off again

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Webberweather53 said:
Looks like the eyewall has opened back up again to the south on the last several radar scans. Intensification may have stopped yet again
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Got a decent flare up trying to wrap it back up, still tough night ahead for the storm it appears....still have no clue what to expect up this way Monday lol.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Got a decent flare up trying to wrap it back up, still tough night ahead for the storm it appears....still have no clue what to expect up this way Monday lol.....
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Yeah, really need to see these flare ups rotate upshear, it's gonna be a constant battle between upshear propagating convection trying to axisymmetrize and strengthen the circulation vs shear/dry air attempting to tilt/weaken it
 
Been on vacation this week on Gulf coast just south of Clearwater Beach. Earlier this week, we decided that we would head over to Disney on the way home Saturday. I had been keeping an eye on storm, but felt ok about it. Bought tickets. We are now under a tropical storm warning here at WDW. Will head to Magic Kingdom tomorrow, get done, and hit the road to GA mid afternoon. Still feel like we should be fine, but will be interesting to see how weather goes as we head later into the afternoon.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, really need to see these flare ups rotate upshear, it's gonna be a constant battle between upshear propagating convection trying to axisymmetrize and strengthen the circulation vs shear/dry air attempting to tilt/weaken it
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yeah exactly what I was thinking :)

......and they had some 90knt drops that last run through the core....72knt unflagged at the surface so its holding up so far...and it looks like both planes are done so we are not going to have data for a while

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 010244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the
Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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Icon basically a border line cat 2 making landfall around myrtle beach maybe cherry grove


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The Icon hit on this run would be a big deal for many board members. Especially if it was any stronger than cat 1
 
Icon track would be significant hit to NC with widespread strong TS and hurricane force gust over most of central and eastern NC from RDU to coast...

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GeorgiaGirl said:
If other 0z models do the same (I honestly wasn't paying that close attention to the NAM), boy it's so bad that we're at the 3 day mark and still might not know what's going to happen.

Should get some resolution tomorrow though.
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That's how it's been the past few years when we have a real threat. It's been as hard forecasting the track and intensity of tropical systems as it is possible winter storms here.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Welp Isaias officially ruined my vacation. Holden beach evacuating tomorrow @ 7pm. Evacuation seems ridiculous for a tropical storm
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We were at Carolina beach In June and the beach erosion was brutal from that week long NE fetch. If this storm has any size and strength its gonna crush those beaches down there.
 
Shaggy said:
We were at Carolina beach In June and the beach erosion was brutal from that week long NE fetch. If this storm has any size and strength its gonna crush those beaches down there.
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I remember Irene in 2011 we lost the snack bar and pavilion at our local County Park at Folly Beach. It just reopened this year
 
Ukie would put several million SC/NC peeps out of power...landfall over Southport......treat these maps like snowfall clown maps though as I am not sure how accurate these are....though at that kind of pressure those wind speeds are doable....

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Euro is east for sure this is gonna be somewhat better for South Florida but worse up the coast
 
Downeastnc said:
Pretty decent flare up around the center again, this one a bit better than the previous few tries....
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Composite radar looks like this cold top flare is putting it substantially closer to closing off again. Let’s see if it lasts or breaks up again.
 
The NHC keeps it at 85 at 5am then slowly weaken it farther out....I guess outside of the Ukie and a few others most models do have it in the 995-1000 mb range off SC/NC....
 
6z ICON LF near Myrtle and up 95. Would be gusty and rainy around here for sure.
 
Rain Cold said:
6z ICON LF near Myrtle and up 95. Would be gusty and rainy around here for sure.
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Yeah basically a 70-75 mph system at landfall obviously any stronger than that and issues increase significantly, even then this type of wind for 5-6 hrs would put a lot of people in the dark

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GFS about the same as the ICON/Ukie track wise but weaker with the wind and a much smaller wind field......
 
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