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Tropical Hurricane Isaias



Looks like a significant amount of dry air just got mixed into its core, which cools the corresponding downdrafts and ultimately disturbs the warm core. The eyewall has opened back up to the south, probably won't see much intensification if/until it seals its eyewall off again

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Looks like the eyewall has opened back up again to the south on the last several radar scans. Intensification may have stopped yet again

Got a decent flare up trying to wrap it back up, still tough night ahead for the storm it appears....still have no clue what to expect up this way Monday lol.....
 
Got a decent flare up trying to wrap it back up, still tough night ahead for the storm it appears....still have no clue what to expect up this way Monday lol.....

Yeah, really need to see these flare ups rotate upshear, it's gonna be a constant battle between upshear propagating convection trying to axisymmetrize and strengthen the circulation vs shear/dry air attempting to tilt/weaken it
 
Been on vacation this week on Gulf coast just south of Clearwater Beach. Earlier this week, we decided that we would head over to Disney on the way home Saturday. I had been keeping an eye on storm, but felt ok about it. Bought tickets. We are now under a tropical storm warning here at WDW. Will head to Magic Kingdom tomorrow, get done, and hit the road to GA mid afternoon. Still feel like we should be fine, but will be interesting to see how weather goes as we head later into the afternoon.
 
Yeah, really need to see these flare ups rotate upshear, it's gonna be a constant battle between upshear propagating convection trying to axisymmetrize and strengthen the circulation vs shear/dry air attempting to tilt/weaken it

yeah exactly what I was thinking :)

......and they had some 90knt drops that last run through the core....72knt unflagged at the surface so its holding up so far...and it looks like both planes are done so we are not going to have data for a while

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 010244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the
Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
Icon basically a border line cat 2 making landfall around myrtle beach maybe cherry grove


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The Icon hit on this run would be a big deal for many board members. Especially if it was any stronger than cat 1
 
Icon track would be significant hit to NC with widespread strong TS and hurricane force gust over most of central and eastern NC from RDU to coast...

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